A figure of €1.2 billion was set aside in Tuesday’s Budget for an increase in the public sector pay bill for next year. The amount was contained in the headline estimate of what it will cost to run the State in 2027.
We will have to wait until more detailed estimates for the public service are published in December to see how the figure breaks down across various Government departments
The number does however address – in part at least – the question that the public sector unions say they need answered before engaging in the next round of public sector pay talks. And both sides know that this cost estimate will almost certainly rise as negotiations go on.
Discussions on the new agreement are currently stalled because the unions will not participate without some evidence from the Government that a meaningful offer is on the table.
RM Block
For its part, the Government is understandably reluctant to give a figure without at least preliminary discussions about the reforms and changes in terms and conditions that are historically linked to public sector pay deals.
Taken at face value, Tuesday’s figure seems to imply a roughly 3 to 3.5 per cent increase in public sector pay next year. Unions will certainly look for more, arguing that gains under the previous deal, a 10.25 per cent increase over two and a half years to last June, have been more than eroded by higher prices – and that inflation has accelerated.
Although there is no breakdown available for the €1.2 billion figure, the public sector unions are well enough versed in the Government finances to read between the lines and determine the direction of travel. Likewise, the Government can offer clarification and point to relevant measures elsewhere in this week’s budget.
The initial response from the unions has not been encouraging. The Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU), which represents the bulk of public sector workers, says the Budget day figure does not suggest the Government is prepared to negotiate a deal that workers could consider credible in current circumstances.
Public sector unions thus remain engaged in work-to-rule action ahead of planned strikes on the 14th and 21st of October. The choreography of public sector pay deals is always intricate and may well dictate that the unions publicly flex their muscles. However, there are limits to the extent of public tolerance for the associated disruption.
Unions leaders know that a deal eventually has to be done. By inviting them to reengage on the basis of the Budget day figure, Jack Chambers, the Minster for Public Expenditure, has offered them a route to walking back their unrealistic demand that the Government effectively agree a pay rise before looking at what strings might be attached. They should take it. Only then can they judge what is really on offer.
