For some time, EU politics has been conducted in anticipation that France’s presidential election in 2027 will define the union’s next phase. Pedro Sánchez’s decision to call a Spanish general election for November 29th has added an unexpected twist.
Spain is not as central to the union as France, but it is the EU’s fourth-largest economy, and Sánchez’s Socialist-led coalition is the most prominent left-wing government among the 27. On migration, defence spending and Palestine it has defied the prevailing centre-right consensus. If, as seems possible, it is replaced by a right-wing bloc including the far-right Vox, the balance in Brussels will tilt further, and the most visible model of social democratic resistance to the prevailing mood will have fallen.
The right enjoys a comfortable poll lead, but victory is not guaranteed. Sánchez is a wily operator who confounded similar predictions of defeat in 2023, returning at the head of a minority administration propped up by Catalan and Basque nationalists. That arithmetic was always fragile, as last week’s defeat of his emergency housing measures demonstrated.
He clearly calculates that housing, which has brought thousands onto the streets since the eviction of an 87-year-old woman in Madrid, can galvanise left-wing voters already alarmed by the prospect of Vox entering national government for the first time. He may be right. But he must contend with a steady drip of corruption cases involving former lieutenants and members of his own family. He also needs the fragmented parties to his left, now scrambling to agree a common platform, to avoid squandering seats under Spain’s electoral system.
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There is a contradiction in fighting an election on housing. Sánchez can point to real achievements, including labour reforms, a big increase in the minimum wage and growth forecast at roughly three times the euro zone rate. On housing, however, his record is thin. Rents have soared, public building has lagged, and allies on his left accuse him of offering gestures rather than action.
If he loses, his successor will be Alberto Núñez Feijóo of the centre-right Partido Popular, with Vox either joining a coalition or supporting a minority government. That would mean a sudden change of course on defence, immigration and the Middle East, where Spain has stood alongside Ireland as one of the EU’s most outspoken critics of Israel’s conduct in Gaza.
With almost eight weeks of campaigning ahead, there is room for twists and turns. If Sánchez repeats his 2023 escape, he will cement his reputation as one of the great survivors of modern European politics. But escapology alone is not enough, and even an unlikely victory would leave him hostage to the fractious arithmetic of Spanish politics.
