These next couple of weeks should tell a tale, starting with Munster’s game against the Bulls in Loftus Versfeld this Saturday (kick-off 5.45pm Irish time/7.45pm SA).
The four South African sides have played their four games in Europe, and only Zebre are below them in the table. But each registered one away win apiece and now have two rounds of games at home, with Munster facing what appears to be the stiffest task, beginning with the Currie Cup champions at fortress Versfeld - where Johann van Graan was ball boy before cutting his teeth as a coach in the franchise where his father was once CEO.
“I think the log is definitely not a fair reflection of where the strength lies in the competition,” admitted van Graan. “The South African teams have only played four games and up north we’ve played five. It’s a very simple fact, specifically with crowds, when you play away it’s more difficult.
“The other thing, South African teams will be incredibly proud of their home performances, starting with the Bulls. They haven’t lost here in three years, so I’m under no illusions as to what’s coming on Saturday evening,” said van Graan, pointing to the Bulls’ 21-game unbeaten home run.
The Bulls will also be buoyed by their first game in front of fans since early last year, albeit restricted to 2,000, and will revel in the highveld and heat in Pretoria, where temperatures hit 27 degrees yesterday.
Helpfully, in addition to van Graan's insider knowledge, JP Ferreira coached with the Lions for a decade, Stephen Larkham played and coached in South Africa with the Brumbies and Graham Rowntree has also coached there with the Lions.
Jason Jenkins could also be making his delayed debut against his hometown region where he played for four years. Back in early October, van Graan had Jenkins and another Bulls product, RG Snyman, in his office and said to them: 'Finally we can put the two of you back onto the pitch, that's why you came here.'
“He (Jenkins) ran a lovely inside line in training and as he went through he did his quad, while RG is well documented by now,” van Graan recalled yesterday.
But Snyman’s cruel misfortune, on top of CJ Stander’s retirement, could make Jenkins’ signing all the more important.
“He will play multiple roles for us in playing ‘6’ and ‘4’. We brought him here to replace CJ in adding to our ball carriers and I think if you just look at the Test matches in the past few weeks – teams with the best ball carriers, if you can get over the gainline it’s a lot easier to win games than if you don’t.
“He’s big, he loves to play rugby and the lads are really looking forward to seeing him. He’s got to get through the week and we’ll decide later in the week how we go but yeah, I certainly brought him to play.”
Van Graan said some, if not all, of the eight Munster players who were granted a down week after their Irish involvement will arrive next Sunday with a view to playing against the Lions at Ellis Park in Johannesburg a week later, namely Tadhg Beirne, Joey Carbery, Craig Casey, Andrew Conway, Keith Earls, Dave Kilcoyne, Conor Murray and Peter O’Mahony.
These games come after the November hiatus and lead directly into Munster’s opening two European games against Wasps (away) and Castres (home).
Four seasons ago, in van Graan’s first campaign, a two-week hike to South Africa led to a Champions Cup semi-final a week later in Bordeaux, when Racing roared into a decisive 24-3 lead inside the first 25 minutes.
Van Graan preferred to highlight that “Racing were exceptionally good in that first 20”, and added: “Teddy Thomas was phenomenal in that first 20 minutes.”
But lessons have been learned. Munster spent much of that fortnight in Cape Town, only travelling to Bloemfontein late in the week of their second game against the Cheetahs, when winning courtesy of Murray’s 57-metre penalty.
This time they came straight to the highveld and hope to use this fortnight as an advantage. They’re also training in the milder evenings and will fly home on the night of the Lions’ game to maximise the eight-day turnaround before facing Wasps in Coventry.
But Europe can wait.
“The URC is going to be so competitive that we can’t afford to just let two games slip. We came down here to win and we say that with a lot of respect because we know that both games will be very tough to win in the highveld,” van Graan said, and cited the Bulls Super Rugby titles in 2007, ‘09 and ‘10.
“You don’t just go to Ellis Park as an overseas team and win. Neither do you to Loftus, so trying to marry all those things up in the coming weeks, we believe we’ve planned well, learned from the past and time will tell.”