MAYBE MONTPELLIER and Worcester made the usual mistake of failing to adequately respect Connacht or maybe they refused to treat the competition with the respect it deserves considering the carrot at the end of the Amlin Challenge Cup stick.
Either way, Michael Bradley’s team should win comfortably in Madrid this afternoon – there is nothing of substance coming from this makeshift and winless expansion franchise – and duly secure a home quarter-final as the highest seeds after Wasps’ 19-17 defeat away to Racing Metro 92 on Thursday.
That result leaves Connacht as the only unbeaten team left in Europe and with Wasps on 22 points from six games – Connacht currently have 21 – the team that finishes as number-one seeds are to play the fifth seed to qualify from the Challenge Cup pools in the last eight.
As it currently stands, Jonny Wilkinson’s Toulon would make the trip to Galway in April although Saracens may yet top that pool.
The other three qualifiers will have home advantage against the three qualifiers from the Heineken Cup so any meeting with Ulster or maybe even London Irish looks to be postponed until the semi-final.
Regardless, Bradley’s last season at the helm could yet define his seven-year tenure out west.
Looking at the clubs set to progress to the knockout stages – Toulon/Saracens, Newcastle and Wasps – and what will be parachuted in from the main event, it remains highly unlikely that Connacht possess the depth of quality to keep going while maintaining some kind of Magners League form into May.
Recent history has proved that much and there is nothing to indicate a dramatic upturn in progress or fortunes.
The coach has made three changes from the side that beat Montpellier with Ronan Loughney, Johnny O’Connor and George Naoupu all coming into the pack as Brett Wilkinson, Michael McCarthy and Ray Ofisa make way; O’Connor and Kiwi recruit Naoupu forming a respectable backrow with captain John Muldoon. Seán Cronin and replacement Wilkinson remain part of the Irish Six Nations training squad that gathers after the weekend.
The backline has a familiar look to it although Gavin Duffy is still injured, with Troy Nathan a capable replacement at fullback.
Fionn Carr remains their most potent attacking weapon and Frank Murphy just shades Conor O’Loughlin for the scrumhalf spot. The bench should be emptied early enough anyway.
Venue:Ciuadad Universitaria, Madrid
Kick-Off:Today,4pm (local time), 3pm (Irish time)
OLYMPUS RUGBY MADRID XV:M Tudela; J Cano, M Heredia, J Canosa, B Pardo; M Mazo, P Feijoo; A Onega Camacho, C Bohorquez, D Gurgenazde; S Souto, J Recuerda; R Camacho, M Acena, I Criado.
Replacements:J Arbelaitz, M Serrano, S Hattori, L Fernandez, M Cook, G Palmers, H Quirelli, I Gutierrez.
CONNACHT:T Nathan; L Bibo, N Ta'auso, K Matthews, F Carr; I Keatley, F Murphy; R Loughney, S Cronin, R Morris; M Swift, M McCarthy; J Muldoon (capt), J O'Connor, G Naoupu.
Replacements:A Flavin, B Wilkinson, J Hagan, B Upton, M McComish, C O'Loughlin, M Nikora, A Wynne.
Referee:S Traversi (Italy).
