Initial contacts between the parties are under way but substantive negotiations have not yet started on the construction of a new coalition government and its programme.
Contacts between the parties suggest that the early post-election preference of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael for Labour to join them in government will not be reciprocated, at least not in the immediate future. Labour leader Ivana Bacik has instead been pursuing the broad red-green alliance with the Greens and the Social Democrats that she repeatedly flagged during the election campaign.
The results of her efforts have not been encouraging, however; the Greens have been left without a meaningful parliamentary presence, while the Social Democrats – never visibly enthused by Bacik’s proposal – gave it the thumbs down on Friday. The Social Democrats said they would meet separately from Labour with other parties, including Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. So that’s that.
Labour must now decide whether to seek a coalition deal with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – and there is a difference between actually seeking a deal and just meeting for the optics, remember – or whether it wishes to continue in Opposition for another five years. The political dangers of going into government are well understood in Labour, and their fears are unlikely to have been assuaged by the fate of the Greens. At the same time, nobody knows better than Labour that government is where parties can achieve their aims, implement their policies and force the changes they have promised voters. There is, reportedly, division between Labour TDs on the issue, but the prospects of the party playing a role in the next government seem to be diminishing.
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And so, the focus will inevitably move to the Independents. A group convened by the Tipperary North TD Michael Lowry has made the early running, signalling its availability, and there have been some preliminary discussions.
It is not yet clear whether they will seek positions in government, as Independents did in the 2016-20 administration, or be content to support the coalition from the outside, as Independents did previously. In any case, a series of deals with the Independents will not be straightforward. Each Independent TD speaks for himself or herself, and has only their own vote to trade; that is the nature of their status. They will be focused on their constituencies, but any new government will need them to stay on board for broader matters such as budgets, motions of confidence and controversial issues. A good deal of foresight will be required to future-proof any agreement.
It seems unlikely that matters will have moved on conclusively when the new Dáil meets for the first time on December 18th. That means a new government is unlikely before mid-January. It should not take longer than that. The options are clear and the participants need to get on with it.