At the Scottish National Party's spring conference in March, leader Nicola Sturgeon was greeted with rapturous applause when she announced a new drive to boost support for independence.
That the Scottish first minister had to wait nearly six months until September to launch her “summer initiative” attests to the tumult in Britain post-Brexit, as well as the challenges facing Scotland’s party of government.
On Friday, Sturgeon hailed the start of “a new conversation” to gauge Scottish views on Brexit, Europe and independence.
The initiative includes a string of town hall meetings, a “growth commission” to address key financial questions, and a three-month-long “political listening exercise”, in which activists have been charged with contacting two million people by the end of November.
Speaking at an away day for SNP representatives in Stirling yesterday, Sturgeon said independence needs to be reconsidered as Brexit "has fundamentally changed" the United Kingdom.
“The debate now is whether we should go forward, protecting our place as a European nation, or go backwards under a Tory government,” she said. “The debate must include an examination of independence in what are profoundly changed circumstances.”
Uphill battle
A second referendum could be a few years away. Polls suggest that Scottish nationalists face an uphill battle on the doorsteps to convince voters who rejected independence in 2014, to back the break-up of Britain now.
The Scottish economy is struggling amid a global crunch in the oil market. Opposition politicians have called on Sturgeon to abandon any plans for a second referendum.
Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, the second largest party in the devolved parliament in Edinburgh, accused Sturgeon of pursuing "her own narrow nationalist agenda".
"If she was really listening, she would know that most of us don't want to go back to another divisive referendum debate – we want Scotland to move on," Davidson said.
Scotland strongly backed the European Union in June's referendum, with every local authority area voting to remain. In the wake of the UK's vote to leave, Sturgeon had said that a second independence referendum was "very likely".
Polls suggested a post-Brexit shift in support towards independence, but that appears to have softened in recent months. The union is still supported by 54 per cent of Scots, according to a YouGuv poll published yesterday. Those figures have barely changed since Scots voted to remain in the UK by 55-45 per cent two years ago.
The Scottish economy was, by some distance, the biggest issue for voters in 2014. Currently almost half of Scots think the country benefits economically from being part of the UK, while only 23 per cent think it is harmed by staying in the union.
Last month, the annual UK Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland showed that Scotland had a deficit of almost £15 billion (€17.7 billion), due largely to the precipitous fall in tax receipts from North Sea oil.
"Until the SNP and those more broadly in favour of independence can narrow that gap, they are always going to find it difficult to get a majority of Scotland" to vote for independence, said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathcylde University.
Polls suggest that just a fifth of Scottish No voters believe that staying in the European Union is more important than remaining in the UK. Sturgeon has pledged to explore all of the options for securing Scotland’s status in Europe – including, if necessary, another vote on independence.
Earlier this week, former prime minister Gordon Brown called for the introduction of a form of federalism in the UK to dampen the prospect of Scottish independence post-Brexit.
Remote prospect
Another referendum in the immediate future is a remote prospect, said
James Mitchell
, a professor of politics at
Edinburgh University
who has extensively researched the SNP. “I don’t think there is going to be a referendum until the first minster thinks she can win.”
Much has been made of the perceived impatience of the SNP’s 120,000 members, the vast majority of whom joined following the 2014 referendum. A motion on a second referendum will be debated at next month’s party conference.
Mitchell, however, has found the new membership to be “very pragmatic” and so far show little sign of putting pressure on the popular Sturgeon.
Another referendum is unlikely this side of the 2021 Scottish parliament elections, he said. There could be a lot of listening – and arguing – done in Scotland before then.