Ireland v Japan
Venue: Tokyo Stadium, Tokyo.
Kick off: 6.40am.
TV: eirSport, 6am (follow on our liveblog from 6.15am).
Look back at previous third Tests in June. Ireland tend to blow a gasket before the finish line. South Africa in 2016 they lost 19-13. New Zealand in 2012 will forever read 60-0.
And so on. Players are growing demented by a Ferris wheel that started spinning this week last summer. Seriously, Leinster returned to their staggered preseason today.
Eventually people crave the creature comforts of their own world.
"At this stage," Jack Conan agrees, "looking forward to a home-cooked meal. All sushied-out."
And the rest. A man misses his dog. A quiet pint. Wives and girlfriends have to be unbelievably patient.
The home straight curves into view as Ireland enter Test match number 12 since that momentous day in Chicago last November.
A psychological dip seems guaranteed.
“I think this is different,” says Conan, the incumbent Ireland No 8 with three tries having carried 167 metres and made 23 tackles in his first two starts 9against the USA and Japan).
“This tour is different. The people involved are so happy to be a part of the squad that there isn’t any looking past what we are doing. Not your holidays or going back to pre-season or anything like that.
“I definitely don’t think any complacency has kicked in. Joe has changed up the team a bit with some lads getting their second cap.
“There is no ‘Aw, we’ll get through this and be on holidays.’ It is, ‘I am putting on that green jersey and I don’t know when there will be a next time.’”
Dan Leavy is dropped. Quinn Roux and Luke McGrath too. Fluid on Simon Zebo's knee sees Andrew Conway shift to fullback as the imposing Jacob Stockdale gets another run at right wing.
Most of the selection was pre-planned. Schmidt was always going to look at Sean Reidy – initially supposed to be Tommy O’Donnell – and John Cooney off the bench in game three. Same goes for furthering exposing James Ryan and Andrew Porter, two 21-year-olds with enormous potential.
If Cooney relieves Kieran Marmion at any stage he will arrive in Belfast as an Ireland international scrumhalf. That would number eight new caps this June.
Clear message
“It’s tough,” continues Conan of the changes, partly influenced by McGrath, Leavy and Finlay Bealham being unable to train last Tuesday due to minor knocks.
“There is no taking a day off training. If you are a bit sore you just have to get on with it. Obviously with Dan he wasn’t able to, he had an actual injury. There isn’t much time to recover either. Especially the last two weeks, when we played a game and were flying. It was tough to set the body clock and get back physically fit for training again. Dan had a fantastic game and is very unlucky to miss out.”
But it lays down a typical Schmidt marker. Passing over Leavy and Quinn Roux sends a clear message to everyone else. Just like Josh van der Flier had to suck it up last week.
Only Conan, Garry Ringrose, Keith Earls, Cian Healy, John Ryan, Devin Toner and Rhys Ruddock will have started all three matches on tour.
Toner wins his 50th cap; an admirable achievement for someone whose international career only truly began on the 2013 North American tour.
Before that the 30-year-old had just three caps, all in 2010, but Toner became an ever-present in the Ireland pack until dropped for Iain Henderson before the England game last March.
The locking stocks are growing again. Roux’s decent progress, along with young athletic freaks – Treadwell, Ryan and Henderson in New Zealand – puts increased pressure on Toner in the coming months.
“Obviously with the lads away with the Lions, November will be a completely different squad,” adds Conan. “People just want to take their opportunity when they can.”
That’s the real value of this tour. Not the Lions captain, probably not even the new OBE, will be able to command a jersey.
Healy and Earls remain from the Hamilton humiliation half a decade ago. Another five men return from that lost third Test in Port Elizabeth.
Not much needs saying.
But considering Japan coach Jamie Joseph stopped just short of calling his players soft – “they were not desperate enough” – and then shredded every line of his team, even recalling 36-year-old Canterbury lock Luke Thompson, a bullish reaction is expected following the 50-22 defeat in Shizuoka.
The 24-point handicap is beatable, if a little steep, but this Ireland group are desperate to finish better than their predecessors have on previous summer tours, and in the process take what may be their last chance to return here in two years time.
IRELAND: A Conway; K Earls, G Ringrose, L Marshall, J Stockdale; P Jackson, K Marmion; C Healy, J Tracy, J Ryan; K Treadwell, D Toner; R Ruddock (capt), J van der Flier, J Conan.
Replacements:
N Scannell, D Kilcoyne, A Porter, James Ryan, S Reidy, J Cooney, R Scannell, T O’Halloran.
JAPAN: R Noguchi; A Yamada, K Matsushima, Y Tamura, K Fukuoka; J Ogura, Y Nagare; K Inagaki,Y Niwai, T Asahara; L Thompson, U Helu; M Leitch (capt), S Matsuhashi, A Mafi. Replacements: S Horie, K Inagaki, T Watanabe, K Yatabe, Y Tokanuga, F Tanaka, R Matsuda, R Yamanaka.
Referee: JP Doyle (England).
Betting: Ireland (-25) 10/11, Japan (+25) 10/11.
Verdict: Ireland win.
