Ireland v England, Aviva Stadium, Saturday, 5.30 – Live on RTÉ 2
This one matters. The Auld Enemy, a teatime full house and a World Cup send-off. There are friendlies and then there are Ireland-England friendlies which, even in a game of tiddlywinks could probably be deemed a contradiction in terms.
History also tells us that Ireland-England encounters can often be of huge significance, and this looks no exception.
The countries have played each other 140 times dating back to 1875, and yet there have only been four non-championship matches, which can thus be categorised as ‘friendlies’. England have won them all, beginning with a one-off match to celebrate Dublin’s millennium in 1988, followed by warm-up victories prior to each of the last three World Cups.
While Ireland bounced off the ropes after the 2011 defeat here and took the 2015 loss in Twickenham on the chin, the psychological damage inflicted four years ago by England’s 57-15 hammering – a record margin in the fixture – on a sweltering day in London reverberated into the World Cup.
Besides, there is the example set by England when generating so much momentum heading into their momentous 2003 World Cup campaign. After sealing an overdue Grand Slam with their 42-6 win in the old Lansdowne Road, the Martin Johnson-led side went to Australia and New Zealand to beat both the Wallabies and All Blacks.
They arguably never quite scaled those heights in the 2003 World Cup but even so maintained momentum in their warm-up games. A week after their only defeat in 16 matches, when Clive Woodward sent a second-string side to Marseille and lost 17-16, a week later they were locked and fully loaded for a 45-14 win over France in Twickenham.
Come the rain-drenched semi-final in Sydney a couple of months later, England beat a spooked French side 24-7 before eventually overcoming Australia in the final after extra-time.
Curiously, Ireland and England have never met in a World Cup, and once again have been kept apart in opposite halves of the draw, meaning they cannot meet each other before the semi-finals in France.
By contrast, Ireland have played France, Australia and Argentina four times, as well as New Zealand, Wales, Scotland and Italy twice apiece in World Cup history.
But winning today wouldn’t so much be about laying down a marker for a possible semi-final, more it would extend the momentum generated by Ireland’s Series win in New Zealand and Grand Slam earlier this year.
Demonstrating that this side’s body of work is every bit as impressive as the English 2003 vintage, Andy Farrell’s team go into this game on the back of winning 23 of their last 25 Tests. They are also looking to extend their Irish record of 15 consecutive home wins.
Accordingly, Farrell has pretty much opted for a full-strength side, retaining 11 of the starting XV which started the St Patrick’s weekend Grand Slam coronation against England here and also restoring Tadhg Beirne and Garry Ringrose, with Ross Byrne primed for a statement performance after being handed two of his three previous starts in Irish no-shows at Twickenham.
The one nod to experimentation, and increasing the backrow options, is Cian Prendergast at number eight in what is a significant audition for the 23-year-old Connacht man on his full debut.
Farrell also welcomed Steve Borthwick’s decision to select a strong, experienced side as the latter too looks for an eve-of-World Cup statement performance. That said, such is England’s state of flux that only seven of their starting XV from March will line up at kick-off this evening.
Borthwick’s side includes a trio of sometime or full-time fullbacks, as Elliot Daly joins Anthony Watson and the aerially supreme Freddie Steward in the back three. This strongly suggests England will again employ Borthwick’s percentage-based kicking game, look to put the Irish back three under pressure and play territory, while making both the set-piece and the gain line war zones, akin to last March when, but for Steward’s red card, things might have been even more taut.
But England have shown little or no sign of evolving from their structured game in two outings against Wales and their attack, such as it is, has yielded two tries in their last three Tests, and both off lineout mauls.
Ireland’s attack is vastly more nuanced and advanced, but mindful that the occasion and England’s line speed and unflinching defensive effort restricted their ambition in March, Farrell is looking for a more complete performance, all the more so to mark the day Keith Earls becomes Ireland’s ninth centurion.
As James Ryan said yesterday: “There are a huge amount of factors that motivate us – the World Cup selection, obviously Earlsy’s 100th cap, guys getting their first start, Cian Prendergast. But winning at home and keeping up that [winning] streak is another little thing.
“This has never been a warm-up game for us,” Ryan revealed. “It’s been very much a Test match, that’s the way we’ve prepared for this game all week, that’s where the focus has been so it’s important that we get the right performance that we are looking for tomorrow and we take a step forward from the Italy game.”
This has also become a curiously streaky fixture in recent times. Six in a row for England from 1988 to 1992 and again from 1995 to 2000; Ireland won seven out of eight between 2004 and 2011, England won four-in-a-row during 2019 and 2020, and Ireland are now seeking a fourth in succession.
An opportune time to do so too. This is a day to make a statement.
IRELAND: Hugo Keenan (Leinster); Mack Hansen (Connacht), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Bundee Aki (Connacht), James Lowe (Leinster); Ross Byrne (Leinster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (Leinster), Dan Sheehan (Leinster), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster); Tadhg Beirne (Munster), James Ryan (Leinster); Peter O’Mahony (Munster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Cian Prendergast (Connacht).
Replacements: Rob Herring (Ulster), Jeremy Loughman (Munster), Finlay Bealham (Connacht), Joe McCarthy (Leinster), Caelan Doris (Leinster), Conor Murray (Munster), Jack Crowley (Munster), Keith Earls (Munster).
ENGLAND: Freddie Steward; Anthony Watson, Joe Marchant, Manu Tuilagi, Elliot Daly; George Ford, Ben Youngs; Ellis Genge, Jamie George, Will Stuart; Maro Itoje, David Ribbans; Courtney Lawes (Capt), Ben Earl, Billy Vunipola.
Replacements: Theo Dan, Joe Marler, Kyle Sinckler, Ollie Chessum, Jack Willis, Danny Care, Marcus Smith, Ollie Lawrence.
Referee: Paul Williams (New Zealand)
Assistant Referees: Craig Evans (Wales), Adam Jones (Wales)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)
Overall head-to-head: Played 140. Ireland 52 wins, England 80, 8 draws.
Last five meetings: (2020, 6N) England 24 Ireland 14 (Twickenham). (2020 ANC) England 18 Ireland 7 (Twickenham). (2021 6N) Ireland 32 England 18 (Aviva Stadium). (2022 6N) England 18 Ireland 32 (Twickenham). (2023 6N) Ireland 29 England 16.
Five-game formguide: Ireland – Won 32-19 v France (home). Won 34-20 v Italy (away). Won 22-7 v Scotland (away), Won 29-16 v England (home). Won 33-17 v Italy (home).
England – Lost 13-27 v South Africa (home); Lost 23-29 v Scotland (home); Won 31-14 v Italy (home); Won 20-10 v Wales (away); Lost 10-53 v France (home),
Betting (Paddy Power): 1-8 Ireland, 30-1 Draw, 5-1 England. Handicap odds (England +12 pts), 8-11 Ireland, 20-1 Draw, 11-10 England.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
