NEW ZEALAND TOUR FIRST TEST: NEW ZEALAND v IRELANDA BOLDLY assembled side attempts to go where no Irish team has gone before, namely to remove a 107-year-old gorilla from a rugby nation's collective backs by beating New Zealand for the first time in 25 attempts.
Declan Kidney’s adventurous selection – which smells as if it’s been in the planning since an anti-climactic end to the Six Nations – adds to the intrigue.
It could backfire. The team has been further discommoded by losing Mike Ross in addition to Paul O’Connell, Stephen Ferris, Tommy Bowe and Luke Fitzgerald. Despite this, Kidney and co have been true to their word in keeping one eye on the future. So it is that Dan Tuohy, Simon Zebo and Fergus McFadden have been promoted, and Keith Earls has earned a longer-term tilt at the midfield slot he craves after impressively standing-in for Brian O’Driscoll in the Six Nations, with clear signs that the latter now has to accommodate him at inside centre.
The hope is that Zebo takes to international rugby the way he irreverently took to the Heineken Cup, and that McFadden brings his energy, pace and superb conditioning in the same way. It’s risky. It looks defensively raw against the All Blacks’ potent looking mix of Aaron Smith’s fast pass, Dan Carter’s attacking genius, the offloading par excellence of a scarily in-form Sonny Bill Williams, Conrad Smith’s intelligent lines, and the pace and power of their outside three.
In his first outing with Earls, O’Driscoll extolled the younger man’s defensive work in his absence. “I think his defensive game has come on in leaps and bounds. That comes with years and understanding plays, things unfold in front of you. He’s one of the fortunate ones who can rely on his gas to be able to cover situations. There’s no doubts about his attacking game but I think he’s really been very solid defensively.”
Part of O’Driscoll’s revived remit is to somehow stop Williams’s offloading game. “Irrespective of who you’re playing against a lot of the game is about trying to get offloads so when someone takes the ball to the line everyone has to work defensively, everyone has to jam in, to stop people flooding through the line. That’s no different because it’s Sonny Bill, it’s probably just that bit more relevant because of his ability to get the ball out of the back doors or front doors or side doors! I think you just look at the size of his hands. It’s like he’s playing with a size three ball.”
The All Blacks may have had a curtailed preparation but four of their Super 15 franchises occupy top-eight places. Their quintet scored 24 tries last weekend, with all bar the Highlanders – beaten 51-18 by a Crusaders’ side featuring seven of this line-up – managing to register attacking bonus points.
The level of passing, running, offloading, support play and finishing at such high intensity was simply bewildering. What’s more, all bar Aaron Smith and fullback Israel Dagg of this backline scored last week, as did Richie McCaw.
McFadden has been handed a daunting task opposite Julien Savea. The IRB Junior World Player of the Year two years ago, his Super 15 form this season has drawn comparisons with Jonah Lomu. Savea has had confidence issues in the past, not least with the high ball, but as with Lomu, he can run through, round or simply past opponents. But dammit, it’s exciting too, and Ireland have previous here, beating the recently crowned English world champions at Twickenham in 2004. They also look set to have a go, but this pre-supposes that the pack stands up and is counted.
With their primary scrummager, primary ball-winner/pack leader and defensive lead, Ireland would have had a better chance than 13/2 and 17 point underdogs. Ross might make it back next week although, of course, this is a huge opportunity for Fitzpatrick. It could help that he’ll have Rory Best beside him and Dan Tuohy behind him. But were he to fall foul of Nigel Owens, even slightly, and this permits Carter to get the scoreboard ticking, it will make an already difficult task considerably harder.
Traditionally wet mid-winter night-time weather is likely to accentuate the scrum’s importance, but with Smith’s selection at scrumhalf particularly in mind, the All Blacks look set to carry on where their franchises left off last week with a high-octane, ball-in-hand game, and a willingness to run from everywhere.
For Ireland to live with that and no doubt more, at least staying with the All Blacks in the first quarter is imperative, as a fresh, highly motivated O’Driscoll noted in this his 10th meeting with them in an Irish jersey and 11th overall.
“You just have to give yourself a fighting chance in the last 10-15 minutes to be within a score. Anything about seven, two scores, isn’t close. It’s comfortable for the other team. I think when you get to the last 10 minutes, and there’s a chance of even a breakaway try to take the lead, that’s where you have to be at.
“You just have to stay in the game for that first half, it’s vital. Just stay tough. And keep playing against them. I think if you try and defend against the All Blacks, they’ll kill ya. I think you have to play and really be very attacking-minded.”
An historic one-off win would be magnificent in its own right, never mind the likelihood that it might elevate Ireland a couple of places from eighth in the world rankings, after the 12th placed Scots brought some Highlands weather with them to Newcastle for a meeting with an under-strength Australia, who now have to front up to a superior Welsh side this weekend.
In time-honoured fashion, such a remodelled All Blacks team under a new coaching regime is likely to improve as the series progresses. As this is a three-Test series, it’s imperative that Ireland are at the very least highly competitive, that they move on to Christchurch with genuine belief that they too can improve, as opposed to being demoralised. For then the benefits from this series could be long lasting.
Overall head-to-head: Played 24, New Zealand 23 wins, 1 draw, Ireland 0 wins.
Last six meetings: (2006) New Zealand 34 Ireland 23; New Zealand 27 Ireland 17; (2008) New Zealand 21 Ireland 11; Ireland 3 New Zealand 22; (2010) New Zealand 66 Ireland 28; Ireland 18 New Zealand 38.
Betting(Paddy Powers): 1/14 New Zealand, 40/1 Draw, 13/2 Ireland. Handicap odds (Ireland +17pts) 10/11 New Zealand, 25/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland.
Forecast: Ireland to beat the handicap, if not the All Blacks.
