This year has been marked by war on multiple fronts, headed by brutal loss of life and destruction in the Middle East and Ukraine. It is having consequences far beyond areas of immediate conflict. Households and businesses across the planet are exposed due to volatile fossil fuel prices as a consequence, though reliance on oil is not what it was 50 years ago.
The world, however, has been dealt a shock as a glaring lack of energy independence and resilience has become evident over a few short weeks; the lessons of history have not been fully learned.
Conflict in the Middle East has shown that too many countries continue to have a dangerous over-reliance on fossil fuel markets. Ireland for too long has been importing 80-85 per cent of its energy in the form of oil and gas, creating high vulnerability to global price volatility and supply risks.
Cruelly exposed by this most recent geopolitical crisis, it could trigger a food security crisis on top of woe so far – a risk that applies to Ireland because of our heavy reliance on food imports (especially 83 per cent of fruit and vegetables); vulnerability to supply chain disruptions as an island nation; and high reliance on imported animal feed and fertiliser.
RM Block
All the while, a war of sorts continues to be waged mercilessly on the climate front, extending to undermining environmental regulation and the pursuit of sustainability. Led by US president Donald Trump, his defiance is emboldening others.
His sweeping rollback of federal climate change policy in February is probably the most consequential move on this front during his second term in office; revoking an Obama-era “endangerment finding” from 2009 which held that pollution harms public health and the environment.
For almost 17 years, the US has used that scientific finding as the legal basis to establish policies to reduce emissions from cars, power plants and other sources of planet-warming gases. It adds up to the most serious challenge to “relevant science” and is likely to see off possible challenges based on the consequences of failure to act.
The endangerment finding enabled a series of regulations intended to protect against climate change and related threats, including deadly floods, extreme heatwaves, catastrophic wildfires and other natural disasters in the US but also around the world.
Those favouring science-informed actions in response to human-induced global warming, know such weakening of resolve risks an unsafe planet where citizens of the world are pushed closer to irreversible environmental impacts.
They are already being exposed to ongoing breaching of planetary boundaries which is undermining their quality of life. More frequent and ferocious extreme weather events, exacerbated by climate change, are inevitable in all scenarios because of inbuilt warming.
Despite this scientific certainty, sweeping cuts in the US to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service have been applied. Day-to-day forecasting has become more challenging because of obvious data deficits – the result of financial cuts. Weather prediction models are less reliable, endangering American lives and people far beyond its borders.
In the broader context, his policies and petrostate-like antics risk pushing the US to the margins of the global climate effort – and slowing momentum elsewhere. But most of all, this scattergun strategy will undermine US economic interests and competitiveness in the long-term.
So, what of the rest of the world? Unfortunately, as columnist Simon Kuper highlighted in the Financial Times, “too many leaders and peoples have tacitly decided not to solve [the climate crisis] through international agreement or personal sacrifice, though there is still the faint possibility of it being solved by cheap Chinese tech”.
Despite this shortcoming, in the first three quarters of 2025, growth in clean electricity generation outpaced that in energy demand for the first time; implying fossil fuels are being displaced.
And India is “electrifying faster and using fewer fossil fuels per capita than China did when it was at similar levels of economic development”, an Ember analysis has concluded – indicating clean electricity could be the most direct way to boost growth for other developing economies too.
Recent conflicts, however, demonstrate the risks of limiting the security question to just physical security of assets. The security relationship is far more fundamental, to the extent that energy strategy is closely allied to security strategy, ie the former has become a defence issue.
Interconnection, ie transmitting power across borders, in that scenario becomes a strategic resilience asset. What is needed to protect this is an undertaking of large proportions, requiring both changes in the way cross-border energy infrastructure investments are governed and financed in Europe. Some estimates suggest more than €1.2 trillion of investments are needed for grids by 2040. The security imperative indicates transitioning to meshed grids rather than traditional point-to-point connections is required.
Meanwhile any country or region without the means to power itself is as vulnerable as they come – be it an otherwise wealthy state, a developing country or located in most climate-exposed parts of the planet in Africa or the Global South.
Sustainable Ireland Special Report
- This year has been marked by war on multiple fronts, and a glaring lack of energy independence has become evident over a few short weeks. A green revolution, however, presses on: Ireland has made remarkable progress in solar generation, which is becoming an important presence in its energy mix, writes Kevin O’Sullivan, former editor of The Irish Times. Read more.
- In theory, it should be a slam dunk for electric buses to be cheaper to operate than diesel buses. If we were talking about private cars, then the maths is incredibly straightforward. When it comes to electric buses, however, the balance of cost seems less clear, writes Neil Briscoe, a contributor specialising in motoring. Read more.
- Trump’s anti-climate antics have led to many multinationals abandoning their sustainability commitments; however, Europe has no option but to push on with the green energy transition, writes Kevin O’Sullivan. Read more.
- As energy security concerns drive urgent demand for renewable gas, Ireland aims to scale biomethane by 2030; but policy, pricing and regulatory barriers must be resolved to unlock its potential, writes Edel Corrigan. Read more.
It is clear from any detached analysis, nonetheless, that renewables combined with electrification is the new “business-as-usual” – not fossil fuels. Arguably, those conflicts have tipped the balance even more in this direction. Though it retains the comfort blanket of coal use, China is surging ahead with renewables and electric vehicle production, while some big economies are decarbonising at pace.
All this is welcome but climate science indicates it is insufficient. Environmentalist Bill McKibben recently noted, “our bigger problem, as we’re about to be reminded, is that the planet is the furthest thing from stable. The backdrop is about to become the foreground, and with that the drama will shift once more”.
His warning was echoed by Assaad Razzouk, chief executive of Singapore-headquartered renewable energy developer Gurīn Energy: “Never-ending fossil fuel wars are a lethal distraction: [A] new study shows global warming doubling in speed since 2015, to 0.35 degrees per decade, while we fight over the last drop of oil. Apocalyptic warming isn’t coming; it’s here. Almost no one is looking up.”
The latest issue of Sustainable Ireland does not shirk from these realities but highlights the case for stay the course on the decarbonisation roadmap. It identifies barriers to progress – notably in planning – as well as the levers for scale-up of renewables, such as diversification and widespread deployment of grid-scale battery storage energy systems, backed by increased availability of the right skill sets.
In addition, it charts the remarkable progress solar generation has made in becoming an important presence in Ireland’s energy mix. With the right supports, that can grow even more in the critical period up to 2030 as the country attempts to address a shortfall in meeting its legally-binding emissions targets.
Cop31
Geopolitical uncertainty, backtracking on commitments by some countries and from big corporations on the critical target of net-zero emissions by 2050 makes for a bleak outlook, given what’s needed and the solutions known to work.
Cop31 will be held in Turkey next November at a critical juncture. It is an opportunity for the rest of the world to push on in the absence of the US, following its second exiting from the Paris climate agreement.
The one tangible positive global outcome achievable in the short-term is a tripling of renewables and doubling of energy efficiency by 2030 – a target set by Cop28 in Dubai. Renewables deployment has boomed since that global tripling agreement.
A tripling is considered achievable but requires “massive acceleration” over the few short years to the end of the decade. In much the way that the tripling target got over the line in 2023, commitment to closing the gap has to garner support at key pre-Cop meetings including the UN General Assembly in September to have a realistic chance. It just won’t happen at the last minute.
If it can be copper-fastened at Cop31, this could be a standout achievement and demonstrate multilateralism can work in spite of an acutely challenging backdrop. In turn, it can be the catalyst for a good overall outcome, especially on climate finance, adaptation funding and helping developing countries invest in renewables.
Holding the EU presidency during Cop31 puts Ireland in a very influential position to get a meaningful deal against the odds. What’s more, our credibility is respected by virtue of how we support developing countries already suffering from climate disruption and we are already part of a coalition seeking higher ambition on fossil fuel phase-out.
Staying the course
The bottom line is the real economy is moving in the direction of renewables, ie clean energy, reinforced by new technologies and artificial intelligence. Battery storage capacities are taking a leap. Now is the time to finally get Ireland’s energy security right – reinforced by a defence mindset and close collaboration with our neighbours – while minimising the risk of fossil fuel lock-in. Addressing affordability issues is equally essential.
Recent events have shown once again the EU needs to pursue energy market reform and rebalance the malign influence of gas prices, which almost always sets the price of electricity in most member states, though a significant share of their power comes from cheaper renewable sources. The quickest way to wean off fossil gas in an orderly fashion remains the best course.
But it is not the time to weaken political signals, policies and supports to ensure key stakeholders in Ireland (and elsewhere) stay the course in pursuing clean, inexpensive energy at scale.
