US president Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social account over the weekend that “both sides have agreed” to an immediate energy ceasefire. It was news to Ukraine and, it appears, also to Russia. “No, we did not know about that,” Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy responded when told about the “ceasefire” by the media. It would be acceptable, however, in the unlikely event it was mutually agreed, he said.
Russia’s response was unambiguous - to bomb a Kharkiv power plant. Trump has eased pressure on Moscow by suspending sanctions against diesel exports and demanding that Ukraine end its effective strikes on oil installations. Putin followed by suspending peace talks indefinitely.
Once again Trump has announced as fact a deal that is no more than wishful thinking, hoping to bounce Ukraine and European allies into accepting it as a fait accompli. His preoccupation is not with ending the war, but entirely about placating angry US voters ahead of the midterm elections next month, with what he claims is a decisive move to reduce diesel prices at the pumps.
It looks unlikely to do so. Yesterday there was a only a small downward tick in prices on news of the “deal”. Although, according to Trump, “Russia will … deliver, within a short period of time, three million tons of diesel fuel,” this represents only 7.5 - 8 per cent of a single day’s global consumption. The impact on prices may be limited, although Russia will receive badly needed cash to help to pay for its war in Ukraine and Trump will appear to an increasingly dubious support base to be responding to their concerns.
RM Block
Yesterday EU ministers correctly made clear their continued solidarity and opposition to the sabotage of Kyiv’s most effective weapon. They refused to countenance following suit by easing sanctions on diesel and agreed to 1,600 new sanctions against individuals and companies in Russia’s military industrial complex.
Trump’s message to Europe is clear once again – the US is no longer the reliable ally on whom the post-War peace was built.
