Despite strong reservations among many EU citizens about further enlargement, discussions at member-state level are proceeding apace. The political imperative of supporting Ukraine is a key driver.
Although unwilling to lower the bar on accession requirements and the lengthy negotiation process, there is increasing talk of a new form of “associate” membership as a first step. Currently in line are Serbia, Macedonia, Albania and Moldova, and way down the line Turkey. And now there is a real prospect that Iceland will rejoin the queue, reopening talks suspended in 2013 over fishing rights. In Norway, despite twice rejecting membership, debate has also reopened
The 400,000 or so Icelanders will vote in August on reopening negotiations with Brussels, with polls showing a narrow majority in favour of talking. Iceland and Norway, both founding members of Nato, have access to the EU’s single market via membership of the European Economic Area, but are the only Nordic countries outside the union.
The yes campaigns in both countries were given fresh impetus by Donald Trump’s announced determination to annex Greenland and his repeated mixing up of Greenland and Iceland, presumably in error, in speeches about his plans. Billy Long, the nominated US ambassador to Reykjavik, joked that Iceland could become the 52nd state. He quickly apologised. But European mutual defence guarantees are a serious consideration.
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It is likely, given the island’s economic development and wealth, that it would be a net contributor to the EU budget and that accession discussions could be speedy. Its currency, the krona, is volatile, however, and inflation double that in the union, so euro membership would not be so easy.
The big issues for voters are likely to be fishing – marine products account for nearly 40 per cent of the value of Iceland’s exported goods – and agriculture. On both, however, as the EU’s commissioner for fishing said recently, there was “definitely room for flexibility”. First, however, Iceland must vote.
