Kiev and Washington have denounced Sunday's planned elections in rebel-held eastern Ukraine, as Russia defied the West by saying it would recognise the legitimacy of the ballots.
Moscow-backed separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk regions intend to elect leaders of their so-called people’s republics and deputies to “people’s councils”, in votes that Kiev, the EU and US say would be illegal and unacceptable.
Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko said the ballots would run counter to a plan agreed in the Belarusian capital on September 5th, which laid out conditions for a ceasefire and a framework for a possible peace deal.
“The quasi-elections announced by the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics don’t comply with the Minsk protocol and contradict its spirit,” Mr Poroshenko said yesterday. “They are threatening the entire peace process.”
Visiting Canada, US secretary of state John Kerry said: "This will be a clear violation of the commitments made by both Russia and the separatists that it backs in the Minsk agreements."
Fomenting unrest
The EU and US agree with Kiev's claim that Moscow is fomenting unrest in the east, supplying rebels with arms and fighters that flow freely, and sending Russian army units and firing artillery into Ukraine.
The Kremlin denies these allegations, while insisting that it has a right to defend Russian-speakers in Ukraine and calling on Kiev to engage in a dialogue with the rebels that should lead to eastern regions receiving broad autonomy.
"The elections that will take place on the territory of the proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk people's republics will be important from the point of view of legitimising power," said Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.
“We expect the elections to be held as arranged and of course we will recognise their results.”
The West has imposed economic sanctions on Russia for its annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula and its alleged role in a war in eastern regions that has killed more than 3,700 people and displaced about one million.
Washington and Brussels have warned Moscow that more sanctions could be imposed if it refuses to help defuse the crisis in Ukraine.
Diplomatic conflict
The Kremlin was defiant yesterday, however, suggesting it was braced for a possible escalation of a diplomatic conflict that has dragged East-West relations to their lowest point since the cold war.
“The conducting of elections is a decision taken by the leadership of these republics. These elections will take place,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, adding that “Russia has no a priori reasons not to recognise the elections.”
Analysts note that Russia took a similar line in helping create "frozen conflicts" in separatist regions of Moldova and Georgia, assisting rebels to establish their unrecognised republics and then urging the state authorities to resolve the dispute directly with the insurgents, rather than with Moscow.
In this way, Russia hampered efforts by Georgia and Moldova to move towards Europe, and retained de facto control over the rebel regions while presenting itself as an impartial broker in peace efforts.
Moscow denies seeking to destroy Ukraine or embroil it in prolonged conflict, and insists the country’s new pro-western leaders must resolve a “civil war” of their own making.
“Russia does not have unlimited levers of influence, and they shouldn’t be exaggerated,” Mr Peskov said of claims that Moscow controls the rebels.
Russian influence
“In this case, the main factor is not the influence of Russia, but a decision made by the leadership of these republics and their people.”
Mr Poroshenko's party is continuing to discuss the creation of a new pro-EU coalition government with the party of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, following their victory in last Sunday's election.
