Good morning.
The haggling within Government over compensation for homeowners affected by Mica is reaching a critical and fraught stage. A meeting was held between the leaders of the Government, relevant Ministers and senior officials on Tuesday evening but conclusions were not reached. It has a bit to go yet.
At issue is the scope of the compensation scheme and the size of the Bill that the State will end up paying. Estimates of the total cost have been put by officials at north of €3 billion – and that’s without the State paying for the ancillary costs that the afflicted homeowners will face, which is one of their key demands.
The minimalists in Government want to keep the cost to the taxpayer as low as possible, while still paying for most of the homeowners’ costs; the maximalists say that the political reality is that the State is going to have to suck it up and pay for everything, or nearly everything.
Either way, the issue is one of great political potency, pitting finance against politics. Those two must always come to an accommodation in the end. But it will be hard going. Jennifer Bray has our off-lead story this morning on the subject. She reports that a cap on individual payouts in the region of €400,000 is likely, much more than the previous figure but not the 100 per cent redress demanded by campaigners. There is also dispute over ancillary costs, for things like testing, engineers' reports and rent while they are out of their homes – campaigners are seeking about €40,000 each, but a figure of €25,000 is more likely to be sanctioned by Government. It's also not clear whether rental properties will be included.
Our lead story this morning brings news of what looks like an important breakthrough at the COP26 summit – an agreement between China and the US, the two biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, to work together on climate issues. There is some scepticism about, but also hope that the agreement marks a historic shift. Negotiations on a final deal in Glasgow continue today. Kevin O'Sullivan's story is here.
Brexit developments today, too. Our London Editor Denis Staunton (with some assistance) reports on the latest developments, with Lord David Frost using an update to the House of Lords yesterday to dial down ever so slightly the expectations of an imminent triggering of article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol.
There is some relief in Dublin, but hardly complacency. On balance, article 16 may still be triggered, but if it is, it probably won't be until the EU-UK negotiations have wound on for a bit longer, at least if Frostie is to be believed. There were more warnings from Irish Ministers directed towards London. Leo Varadkar said that if Boris Johnson thought all this would get him a better deal on the protocol, he's wrong: it won't. Micheál Martin said that the triggering of article 16 would jeopardise Northern Ireland's exporters' access to the EU single market.
Even Bertie Ahern got in on the act, telling Harry McGee last night at a book launch (Conor Lenihan's biography of Albert Reynolds) that the British Government's behaviour is "appalling". Mind you, Boris is certainly keeping the EU guessing. But whether there is any strategic benefit to this – rather than just tactical – remains to be seen. He may just annoying everyone. And if that's the plan, it's going rather well.
Newton Emerson has an interesting piece in which he speaks for "garden centre unionists" and appeals to the EU to take a softly-softly approach to ensure unionist acceptance of the protocol.
But our editorial takes a robust line: "The UK must learn that there is a hefty price to pay for reneging on treaties."
You can hear us discuss the latest developments in the Inside Politics podcast here.
Nphet is also in the news this morning. The public health advisers have warned that people should halve their social contacts in order to reduce the spread of Covid, which is now growing at a spanking rate – some 25,000 cases last week alone, the third highest week since the pandemic began. However, chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan said that the group was not at this point recommending the reintroduction of restrictions, "nothing can be ruled out". Read into that what you will. There is another Nphet meeting today, which Paul Cullen reports will discuss a possible recommendation to return to a full work-from-home policy.
Best reads
Northern Editor Freya McClements reports from loyalist areas on opposition to the protocol.
Senators unveiled a portrait of David Norris yesterday. There were fine words all round. Miriam Lord was there.
Tensions on the Poland-Belarus border appear to be reaching boiling point, as migrants continue to funnel towards the EU, aided by the Lukashenko regime.
Rural house prices are surging: blame work-from-home.
Playbook
Housing questions at 9am this morning, which is a fine way to start the day unless you are the housing Minister in the middle of a housing crisis.
It’s leaders’ questions at noon, followed by statements on the Farrelly Commission (into the “Grace” case), Government legislation and then a debate on forestry.
Quiet day in the Seanad, while at the committees, the pick of the bunch is probably the Public Accounts Committee, which will examine various items of Government expenditure, including on coast guard vehicles and night vision equipment. The mind boggles at the cost of the goggles. Sorry.
Full schedule here.
