Europe and the world's auto makers will doubtless be patting themselves on the back after a broadly successful Paris motor show. Many an exciting new model or concept was unveiled, the crowds were suitably impressed and Europe's car sales continue to stutter back towards some sort of acceptable point.
The underlying trend of car ownership, though, makes for horrifying reading if you have any sort of stake or interest in the car industry. Quite simply, consumers are falling out of love with cars and no amount of motor show glitz and glamour looks likely to change that.
Car ownership declining
The bald facts are these. Since 2005, in Paris, the number of cars per 1,000 head of population has
declined
by nine per cent. In London, the figure over the same period has fallen by eight per cent. More worryingly still, in Munich, the home of both
BMW
and
Audi
, the number of cars per 1,000 head of population has declined by a staggering 16 per cent in the past nine years.
So what's happening out there? The biggest issue, certainly for car ownership in urban areas, is that of congestion. Clearly, Europe's capital cities, laid out in the 18th and 19th centuries, were always going to struggle to accommodate the car as a form of mass transport, but even in newer cities, ones which could be said to be designed around the car, such as Los Angeles, congestion has driven people to, and past, breaking point.
Most people now consider sitting in a tin box for an hour or more going to and coming back from work an utter waste of time. Much better to be on public transport, where 3G or 4G connectivity can be exploited, or just good old fashioned wifi. It's that connection that's important to those aged between 18 and 34 now, the ability to be plugged in on the move.
What’s least important is the machine doing the moving.
In a recent survey carried out by the Bank Of America, 96 per cent of respondents aged 18-34 regarded their phone as "important" compared to 80 per cent who felt the same about their car. More worryingly still for the car industry, even older age groups in the same survey regard their phone as being equally important as their car.
Of course, car makers are coming up with ways to hit back against the tide of tech. Jaguar is developing new systems that use Near Field Communication (NFC) technology to recognise from a phone's electronic signature who's just sat into the car (and in which seat) and adjust the stereo, climate and chassis and engine settings accordingly.
Coupled with much-hyped developments in augmented reality windscreens, the car then becomes a big, wheeled extension of your phone – reading out your texts and tweets to you as you drive, while flashing up alerts on the windscreen of which shop along the route has the things you need to buy at the keenest prices (having read the shopping list you made on the phone before leaving the house).
Phone to become key
Hyundai
is also planning to make the phone an integral part of driving, again using the NFC function to allow your phone to become the key for your car. We’re used now to cars that detect the key in your pocket, and which unlock the doors and allow you to fire the ignition without fiddling with buttons.
How much better then to be able to do that without even needing to remember the key itself?
“With this technology, Hyundai is able to harness the all-in-one functionality of existing smartphone technology and integrate it into everyday driving in a seamless fashion,” says Allan Rushforth, senior vice president of Hyundai Motor Europe.
Mercedes, too, wants to more closely combine the phone and the car, saying in a statement to Bloomberg News that “the car of the future will be much more than a mode of transport. It will become “an intelligent, automobile companion that recognises the driver’s and passengers’ wishes, moods and preferences.”
All of which is great, and all of which is appealing, but all of which will make not a whit of difference if we continue to fall out of love with the car, as we have been doing.
The Asian and Chinese markets which are currently sustaining the globe’s car making ambitions will eventually become as saturated and over-subscribed as Europe’s.
And those places which put a premium on car ownership because of poor public transport will eventually evolve and offer more alternatives to the car.
Even in Dublin, the home of lousy public transport, things are changing. In the mad dash this year to buy new cars again, post-austerity, Dublin is the worst-performing of all the regional markets in the country, according to figures gathered by Motorcheck.ie – its sales increase seven per cent below the national average.
If stubborn Dubliners can be persuaded that there are better ways of getting around than the car, then the global motor industry is in serious peril.
