The G20 leaders who met in Rio de Janeiro last week, including Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, represented 80 per cent of the world’s population and 85 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP). But the two figures who cast the longest shadows over the meeting were thousands of miles away, Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Donald Trump in Mar-a-Lago.
While the G20 leaders were negotiating a declaration addressing hunger, inequality and global governance, Putin announced a change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine. This would authorise a nuclear strike against any country that attacked Russia with the backing of a nuclear power.
The shift was months in the making but its announcement followed Ukraine’s launch of American long-range missiles against targets inside Russia. Biden’s authorisation of their use was a response to the deployment of 10,000 North Korean troops in support of Russian frontline forces close to the border with Ukraine.
While each side blames the other for escalating the conflict, there is no disputing the fact that the latest developments have made Russia’s war in Ukraine more dangerous. What began as an attempt to topple and replace the government in Kyiv and developed into a war of attrition risks becoming an era-defining conflict between the western powers and those who challenge the current international order.
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Putin’s inner circle includes figures who reportedly are sanguine about the use of nuclear weapons, arguing that it might be necessary to deploy them once in order to restore their deterrent effect. As the two sides seek to improve their position ahead of possible peace negotiations, the war in Ukraine has never been more dangerous.
If Trump presents himself as a champion of peace in Ukraine, his cabinet picks suggest that he will double down on Washington’s support for Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Republican senator Lindsay Graham has threatened to sanction any US ally that enforces the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrants for Binyamin Netanyahu and former Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant, a position that sits uneasily with Washington’s self-proclaimed role as defender of the international rules-based order.
In his meeting with Biden, Xi set out a series of red lines on Taiwan, democracy and human rights and development and warned against a new Cold War. His words may also have been meant for Trump, who is threatening to reignite a trade war with China.
Ukraine, the Middle East and the great power rivalry between the United States and China present intractable disputes between sometimes bad actors. Each requires urgent diplomatic action to avert possible catastrophe.