Planet Earth is far outside the safe operating space for humanity “and rapidly approaching a state of red alert”, according to the latest global analysis co-ordinated by the Potsdam Institute in Germany.
It updates the extent to which “planetary boundaries” are being exceeded. They define a scientifically safe operating space on Earth for humans to have a good chance of thriving into the future.
It confirms six out of nine boundaries have been exceeded and continue to worsen, including climate change; “biosphere integrity” and land system change, with the possibility that ocean acidification — in which the sea absorbs increasing amounts of CO2, endangering marine ecosystems — will soon follow.
Acidification of sea water harms calcifying organisms, risk food web breakdown and reduces the ocean’s ability to act as a carbon sink for the planet.
Critical Earth’s systems functions are at risk there is “a clear trend towards further transgression”. While this is not equivalent to drastic changes happening overnight, they mark entering territory of rising risk, it notes.
“As multiple boundaries are breached, the risk of permanently damaging Earth’s life support functions increases and the probability of crossing irreversible tipping points sharply increases,” said Prof Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
The scientists have completed the first “planetary health check” (PHC), an aggregate assessment of the state of the Earth that combines all nine planetary boundary processes and marks a significant milestone in the understanding of Earth’s health, he said.
It will be an annual assessment and evolve into a diagnostic tool, with regular updates for politicians, policymakers and businesses, to assess humanity’s impact on the planetary boundaries and to return to the “safe operating zone” for Earth.
“We recognise that the planet’s health … is at such risk today that we in science must also now step up and step right out in to the uncomfortable zone and say that we are now committing ourselves to produce every year a scientific measuring of the entire health assessment – a risk assessment – across all the planetary boundaries,” Prof Rockström said. “This is much more than science, this is science for change.”
“Earth science, satellite data, AI [artificial intelligence] technology and the wisdom of Indigenous Peoples will work together for the first time to provide visual, actionable intelligence for users around the world to make better decisions over their activity and reduce harm to the planet’s health,” the report states.
“Planetary boundaries are a baseline for justice. We can only define a just future for humanity if we address the health of the planet in parallel. We have a window of five years to change course — to cut global emissions by 50 per cent by 2030 and take action towards halting biodiversity loss and stop the expansion of agriculture into intact nature,” it adds.
The new initiative, designed to act as a guide for global development, is being supported by “planetary guardians”, an independent group of leaders supporting efforts to make the boundaries an essential measurement framework to inform collective action based on science, while striving to keep the planet stable and resilient.
Challenges such as climate change and biodiversity loss have been addressed separately but these issues are interconnected and affect our planet’s health, as well as human health, said former Irish president Mary Robinson, one of 14 planetary guardians. A holistic approach was necessary to address resulting poverty; health crises, migratory movements and conflict, she said at a briefing.
This needed to be backed a by positive action framework, reinforced with “a strong message of hope”. The world was on the cusp of a renewable energy revolution, adopting circular economic activity with no waste and becoming much healthier without deadly pollution, she added. But the PHC was indicating “we must go faster” in stopping the uses of fossil fuels, providing renewables for everybody and adopting agriculture that is “regenerative of the soil”.
“The message is clear, local actions impact the planet, and a planet under pressure can impact everyone, everywhere. Securing human wellbeing, economic development, and stable societies requires a holistic approach where containment of the planet takes centre stage,” said climate physicist Levke Caesar, one of the lead authors.
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