To find out what the public, North and South, think about key aspects of the unification debate, we fielded the third annual wave of Arins/Irish Times surveys.
These surveys provide an important snapshot of public opinion using a large, representative sample of the adult population in each jurisdiction. Some significant questions we repeat annually. Novel themes are also explored each year.
While these surveys are valuable in telling us what people think, both overall and according to different groupings (by class, age, education and religion of origin), they can be less useful in explaining why people hold certain views.
On some complex constitutional or unfamiliar questions, such as possible models of government formation, it is likely that many people will not yet have fully developed or informed opinions.
Therefore, to complement our regular North/South survey, Arins organised two deliberative forums (miniature citizens’ assemblies) on the topic of government formation in the event of a united Ireland.
One forum was held in Northern Ireland, in Belfast, while the second was held in the Republic of Ireland, in Athlone. They allow us to examine people’s considered judgments, North and South, after they have had the chance to learn about the issues and to discuss them with one another.
In the North, the deliberative forum took place at a hotel in central Belfast on Saturday, September 21st. The 63 participants were recruited by Ipsos, an international survey company, to be representative of Northern Ireland’s adult population according to gender, age, social class, geographical region and community background.
In the South, the deliberative forum took place at a hotel in Athlone on Saturday, September 28th. The 65 participants were recruited by the same survey company to reflect the composition of the Republic’s adult population, with quotas for gender, age, region and social class.
The structure of both events was identical. Through a series of presentations delivered by Prof Brendan O’Leary, the participants in each deliberative forum were introduced to the topic before learning about five possible models for government formation in the event of Irish unification. Over the course of the day, the participants discussed the five options, including their perceived strengths and weaknesses, in small groups with a trained facilitator.
Each of the group discussions was audio-recorded, allowing us to identify the themes that emerged by analysing the verbatim transcripts. Participants also completed anonymous surveys at the beginning and end of the day, enabling analysis of their initial views towards different aspects of the topic, and how their views may have changed (or not) on the basis of relevant information and deliberation.
The core features of the five options are described below, as they were presented to participants in slides at the events.
Option 1: The existing system in the Republic of Ireland
A united Ireland would follow the existing method for forming a government used in the Republic of Ireland. After a general election across the whole island, any party, or any coalition of parties, that commands a parliamentary majority forms the government, and nominates the prime minister and deputy. Parties from a British/unionist background would be treated just like any other party. British/unionist parties could be part of the government, but there would be no requirement that a party from a British/unionist background must be part of the government. All parties participating in the government would commit to exclusively peaceful and democratic means.
Option 2: A system resembling that used in Northern Ireland
A united Ireland would follow the methods for forming a government that closely resemble those used in Northern Ireland since the Belfast Agreement (also known as the Good Friday Agreement). After a general election across the whole island, elected parties and independents in the all-island parliament would indicate whether they are joining the “Irish” bloc, the “British” bloc or the “other” bloc. There would be two prime ministers with equal powers: one from the largest party in the Irish bloc, the other from the largest party in the British bloc.
Either the British or the Irish bloc could veto the formation of the government. After the government is formed either of the two prime ministers may resign, causing the collapse of the government and a new general election.
[ Support for Irish unification growing in Northern Ireland, poll findsOpens in new window ]
The prime minister from the British bloc may veto proposed legislation that s/he claims harms a fundamental interest or right of people who identify as British or unionist on the island. The government may override this veto if the Supreme Court finds that the claim is not valid. The government would include all political parties with significant support that wished to participate.
All parties that have 7 per cent or more of elected politicians in the all-island parliament would have the right to be part of the government and secure a cabinet ministry. This method would make it highly likely that parties from a British/unionist background will be entitled to at least one and possibly two of the 15 cabinet ministers. All parties participating in the government would commit to exclusively peaceful and democratic means.
Option 3: A system guaranteeing an inclusive coalition government
A united Ireland would have an inclusive coalition government. This option is similar in one way to the Northern Ireland system: The government would include all political parties with significant support who wished to participate. So, all parties, apart from those with less than 7 per cent of the elected politicians, would have the right to be part of the inclusive coalition government. This method will make it highly likely that parties from a British-unionist background will be entitled to at least one and possibly two of the 15 cabinet ministers.
All parties participating in the government would commit to exclusively peaceful and democratic means. However, this option is different in important ways to the current Northern Ireland system: There would be just one prime minister, nominated by the largest party in the all-island parliament. If the British-unionist parties decided not to join the government, a government could still be formed by the other parties. If ministers from British-unionist parties joined the government and later resigned, that would not cause the government to collapse. Also, there would be no special provision for British-unionist ministers in the government to veto proposed legislation.
Option 4: A system guaranteeing a fixed quota of two British unionist ministers
A united Ireland would reserve two of the 15 government ministers for British-unionist elected politicians, with provisions for British-unionist ministers to halt legislation. This option is similar in one way to the Republic’s existing system: after a general election across the whole island, any party, or any coalition of parties, that commands a majority in the all-island parliament would form the government, led by the prime minister.
However, this option is also very different from the Republic’s existing system: the nominated prime minister must invite the largest British-unionist party to provide two cabinet ministers, elected from constituencies in the six counties of Antrim, Down, Armagh, Tyrone, Fermanagh and Derry (Londonderry).
Any British-unionist minister who joins the government may halt proposed legislation that s/he claims would harm a fundamental interest or right of people who identify as British or unionist on the island. The government may override this veto if the Supreme Court finds that the claim is not valid.
If the largest British-unionist party does not take up the invitation to provide two cabinet ministers, the next largest British-unionist party is then invited. If all of the British-unionist parties with elected politicians refuse to avail of this opportunity a government commanding a majority in the all-island parliament would be formed.
If British-unionists do take up the two cabinet minister positions and then resign from the government, the prime minister may replace these ministers, and there would be no need for a general election. All parties participating in the government would commit to exclusively peaceful and democratic means.
Option 5: A system guaranteeing four ministers from the North
In a united Ireland, four of the 15 government ministers must be from the northern six counties. This arrangement would reflect the proportion of the North’s population in a united Ireland (which on today’s figures would be 27 per cent). After a general election across the whole island, any party, or any coalition of parties, that commands a majority in the all-island parliament would form the government led by the prime minister.
However, to avoid any risk that the northern six counties would be underrepresented in the government in the new united Ireland, the 15 ministers in government would have to include at least four politicians elected from constituencies in the six counties of Antrim, Down, Armagh, Tyrone, Fermanagh or Derry (Londonderry). All parties participating in the government would commit to exclusively peaceful and democratic means.
