PoliticsAnalysis

All eyes will be on DUP’s verdict if a Brexit deal is struck this week

Unionist opinion on any agreement to resolve Protocol dispute, and the position of Tory Brexiteers, are potential stumbling blocks to success of expected deal

London, Brussels and Dublin hope to come up with a deal that will persuade Jeffrey Donaldson’s DUP to go back into power-sharing in Northern Ireland. Photograph: Paul Faith / AFP) (Photo by PAUL FAITH/AFP via Getty Images
London, Brussels and Dublin hope to come up with a deal that will persuade Jeffrey Donaldson’s DUP to go back into power-sharing in Northern Ireland. Photograph: Paul Faith / AFP) (Photo by PAUL FAITH/AFP via Getty Images
Cormac McQuinn's picture
Cormac McQuinn
Mon Feb 20 2023 - 01:00

“Boris is being Boris”, is how one senior Conservative politician described the apparent intervention by former prime minister Boris Johnson as London and Brussels strive to finalise a deal to resolve the row over Brexit and the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Penny Mordaunt, a UK cabinet minister, was responding to a source close to Mr Johnson saying on Saturday that “his general thinking is that it would be a great mistake to drop the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill”.

The Bill is the controversial UK legislation designed to tear up the Northern Ireland Protocol – a deal Mr Johnson himself struck.

Ms Mordaunt told Sky’s Sophy Ridge On Sunday that Mr Johnson’s warning was not “completely unhelpful” adding that it is “helpful to remind the EU of that Bill, and what this deal actually has to deliver”.

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Mr Johnson’s position is no doubt similar to many in the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory Party who are poised to pour cold water on the expected deal between the UK and EU.

This is particularly the case as it involves a continued oversight role by the European Court of Justice due to Northern Ireland remaining in the single market.

A rebellion by the Brexiteers in the Conservative Party is one potential stumbling block to UK prime minister Rishi Sunak selling a deal on the Protocol in Westminster.

However, this hurdle could be overcome given the Labour Party’s offer of support in any parliamentary vote on the agreement – albeit this would be damaging and undesirable for Mr Sunak.

The larger risk to the success of any deal is in Northern Ireland in the form of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which has been refusing to re-enter powersharing due to their opposition to the Protocol.

While a deal with the EU could benefit Britain by easing economic and trade tensions, any agreement will be deemed a failure by many if it does not result in the re-establishment of the Northern Ireland Executive and Stormont Assembly.

The Northern Ireland Assembly has been suspended since February 2022 after the DUP resigned in protest at the Northern Ireland Protocol.. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP via Getty Images
The Northern Ireland Assembly has been suspended since February 2022 after the DUP resigned in protest at the Northern Ireland Protocol.. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP via Getty Images

The DUP has long set out “seven tests” that any deal must meet to be acceptable to them.

These include everything from the need for any agreement to comply with the 1800 Act of Union to no border in the Irish Sea and no checks on goods coming from Britain that are to remain in Northern Ireland.

It is highly unlikely that the fledgling deal between the EU and UK will fully satisfy all of the DUP’s seven tests, but the hope in London, Brussels and Dublin will be that there will be enough to persuade Jeffrey Donaldson’s party to go back into powersharing.

Brexiteers in the Conservative Party have talked up the DUP’s role in evaluating any deal.

At the weekend, Jacob Rees-Mogg said he backed the DUP’s tests as “extremely reasonable”.

Ms Mordaunt meanwhile said a deal must work for all communities in Northern Ireland and pass the DUP’s seven tests.

Mr Sunak spent the most time with the DUP during his engagements with the parties in Northern Ireland at the end of last week.

Mr Donaldson was non-committal afterwards telling the media that “on some very important issues there has been real progress but there remain some outstanding issues that we need to get over the line”.

He told the DUP’s members at the weekend that there has been welcome progress in some areas but it others “it currently falls short of what would be acceptable and required to meet our seven tests.”

[ DUP is finally facing decision time as Northern Ireland protocol deal nears ]

Mr Donaldson also said he indicated to Mr Sunak that “it is important he agrees the right deal rather than a rushed deal.”

If an agreement is struck between the UK and EU this week, all eyes will be on the verdict of Mr Donaldson and his party.