The UK government has confirmed it will deliver its manifesto pledge to lower the voting age to 16 before the next general election, due in 2029. It intends this to apply to all types of elections across the UK, including Assembly and council contests in Northern Ireland.
Naturally, the first question this has raised is how it will affect the balance between unionism and nationalism.
The presumption is that nationalism will benefit due to the younger age profile of the Catholic population. This explains a sharp orange-green split on the issue: in an opinion poll last year, 70 per cent of nationalists supported votes at 16 compared with 6 per cent of unionists.
The consensus among experts is that while nationalism will gain, the electoral impact will be negligible, amounting to less than a 1 per cent advantage. That does imperil two marginal DUP Westminster seats, but it looks trivial in terms of Assembly and council elections, which are held under proportional representation in Northern Ireland, rather than Westminster’s first-past-the-post system.
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Rather than fretting over tribal headcounts, perhaps unionists should be more concerned about the remarkable incuriosity towards Britain this story reveals. Scotland has had votes at 16 since its 2014 independence referendum, extended shortly afterwards to council and Scottish parliament elections.
Wales reduced the voting age to 16 for assembly elections in 2021 and council elections the following year. These changes have generated a wealth of evidence, research and debate, with specific relevance to devolution, yet Northern Ireland appears completely oblivious to it.
Devolution was meant to foster engagement between the constituent parts of the UK. Votes at 16 is a striking illustration of how the regions have instead become wrapped up in their own little worlds.
There ought to be particular fascination with the Scottish independence referendum, the first time 16- and 17-year-olds could vote in the UK. Contrary to almost everyone’s expectations, they backed the union by a similar percentage to the electorate overall. The outliers were people aged 25 to 35, who exhibited by far the strongest backing for independence.
Had unionists and nationalists in Northern Ireland paid this the slightest notice, their hopes and fears over lowering the voting age might not be so pronounced.
The clearest finding from research on Scotland, Wales and other countries with voting at 16 is that it boosts long-term participation in elections.
A person enfranchised at that age is more likely to continue voting as they get older than would otherwise have been the case.
The second-clearest finding is that this makes no long-term difference to how they vote or their interest in politics. As they get older, their voting patterns and political activity are exactly as would always have been expected given their socio-economic background.
Because few places had voting at 16 until a decade ago, there is only evidence for its long-term effects up to the age of about 30. Some of that evidence suggests the effect fades with time. Nevertheless, it raises total participation and this has a simple explanation: 16- and 17-year-olds are generally in the care of adults who will assist and cajole them into the habit of voting.
By contrast, the few years of flux from 18 onwards are the worst time to acquire civic duties. Merely maintaining a registered address can be a challenge.
The importance of family explains why young first-time voters can be surprisingly conservative. They are influenced by their parents, although there is some evidence parents are influenced in turn, especially on issues where teenagers and adults tend to disagree, such as immigration or climate change.
The image of a nuclear family discussing politics around the dinner table is a cliche that will infuriate the left, which ironically helps explain why the left is not as popular as it believes.
All this points to business as usual in Northern Ireland, where politics is largely seen to be hereditary.
The rebelliousness of 25- to 35-year-olds in the Scottish independence referendum was repeated across the UK in the 2019 general election, when that age group backed Labour under Jeremy Corbyn far more than the younger voters he was predicted to win over.
It turns out that what radicalises voters is not youth but the struggles of settling down. The implication for Northern Ireland is that relatively affordable housing may be more crucial to the union than appreciated.
Voting at 16 has focused attention in Scotland and Wales on better civic education in the classroom. This can cause contention and be a lose-lose situation, with schools accused either of not doing enough or of propagandising.
Northern Ireland’s divided education system will have to handle this with care. It could look to Scotland and Wales for models and warnings. But first, it will have to remember the other devolved regions exist.
