The refugee crisis unfolding across Europe has been a story of individuals, one in which the image of a drowned boy or the face of a desolate mother trudging towards Germany can change the face of public opinion. But in many ways the sheer numbers of people arriving on European shores tells the real story of the biggest refugee crisis facing Europe since the second World War.
Between last Friday and Sunday, close to 18,000 new migrants arrived on the Greek islands, with the tiny island of Lesbos now receiving an average of 6,000 migrants per day. As the tide of refugees makes its way north, 26,000 people crossed into Macedonia from northern Greece last week. Further north along the migration route, more than 170,000 crossed into Slovenia through the Croatian border over the past three weeks, prompting the Slovenian government to erect temporary fences with its neighbours.
"At least 100,000 people are now on the roads in Europe, with 30,000 on the move in Greece, and 50,000 in the Balkan countries," said one senior EU diplomat this week, ahead of the Valletta summit on migration which got under way in Malta yesterday. "At the moment there isn't a humanitarian catastrophe, but we have to avoid one happening."
The Valletta gathering, which will be followed by an EU leaders summit today, is the latest attempt by the international community to respond to the refugee crisis unfolding across Europe.
Malta, an EU member since 2004, has long found itself at the crossroads between Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The rocky island bears the marks of the mixed heritage and culture that has shaped its history as far back as the Crusades.
The two-day EU-Africa summit, which is being attended by more than 30 African leaders, is exploring how Europe and Africa can co-operate better to tackle the root causes of migration. It is a gigantic challenge. The complex dynamics that lead to migration from Africa – poverty, climate change, war, dysfunctional political structures – will not be solved in a high-level political conference.
Emergency fund
The €1.8 billion emergency trust fund for Africa to be signed today has already attracted criticism from NGOs, which have warned against using EU development money to curb migration from Africa.
Agencies such as Oxfam Ireland and Médecins Sans Frontières have identified an uncomfortable truth – while Europe may be struggling to cope with the influx of refugees from Africa and elsewhere, migration to Europe has been a good thing for African countries, which benefit substantially from remittances.
African leaders themselves are also likely to argue that the €1.8 billion on offer is insufficient for a continent the size of Africa, particularly when a figure of up to €3 billion has been mooted for Turkey, a country not struggling with the poverty levels and development challenges faced by Africa.
But while Europe may be stressing the need to look further afield to tackle the root causes of migration, the bloc's own internal systems to deal with the refugee crisis are at breaking point. EU justice ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday appeared to concede what has been becoming increasingly obvious: the European Commission's "hotspot" system, which was to see teams of EU officials sent to Italy and Greece to help local officials process migrants, is grossly inadequate to deal with the sheer number of people arriving each day, many of whom want to avoid registration in the fear that they may be deported.
Instead, ministers meeting on Monday proposed the establishment of processing centres along the migration route, including in non- EU countries.
Even the countries that have been most welcoming to migrants, such as Germany and Sweden, are under strain. In Sweden, the furniture retailer Ikea has run out of beds, as the country struggles with the practical challenges of hosting the estimated 170,000 refugees expected to arrive this year.
Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel has managed to stave off political tensions for now. But the Munich-based IFO Institute for Economic Research estimates that the country will spend €21 billion on housing, food and education for refugees this year, while finance minister Wolfgang Schäublee has warned that Germany has a limit on the number of refugees it can accept.
Polarised politics
Migration is also having political effects. Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice party swept to victory in last month’s general election, helped by an anti-immigration stance, while Croatia’s ruling Social Democratics came second to the more anti-immigration HDZ in last Sunday’s election.
While attempts to examine root causes of migration may be admirable, the EU’s immediate challenge is dealing with the crisis unfolding within its own borders. Tackling the reasons why migrants leave their home countries may be for another day.