When you walk into Ursula von der Leyen’s office, one of the first things you notice is a large picture on a wall, near a set of sofas where the European Commission president hosts guests.
The picture shows the Treaty of Rome being signed in 1957, a key moment in the history of the political community that would eventually become the European Union.
The treaty set up a common market between the original six; France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, binding their economic future closer together.
It built on the European Coal and Steel Community established six years before, which pooled coal and steel production in the aftermath of the second World War. The idea was that, by entwining the economies of Germany and France together, you would make another war in the heart of Europe between the two powers impossible.
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Friday marks 75 years since then-French foreign minister Robert Schuman proposed the concept of European peace through economic co-operation.
Several treaties later, 22 more member states, a euro currency, the 2008 financial crash, the UK’s exit, plus a war in Ukraine, and you get the EU of today.
The European club that expanded during decades governed by a rules-based global order now finds itself in one where it seems might makes right.
The United States under Donald Trump has ruptured the transatlantic partnership that was a foundational bedrock of the EU. Sweeping tariffs have been put on trade. The US has suggested it might not come to the aid of its old allies in the event of a future attack by Russia. That has really heightened anxiety in eastern EU capitals.
“The US security blanket allowed [Europe] to build its welfare state, to choose butter over guns,” says Matthias Matthijs, an associate professor at Johns Hopkins University who specialises in EU politics. That era seems to be over. “American support for EU integration is gone or has become conditional at best,” he says.
Big hopes are being pinned on new German chancellor Friedrich Merz. Many are looking to him to restart the Franco-German engine that once powered European politics, but has been stalling for years.
“We know through history that political systems have risen and fallen with regularity ... Assessing where the [European] system is at now is particularly difficult, because of the uncertainty in global politics,” says Brigid Laffan, European University Institute emeritus professor.
“The EU has effectively been very severely tested since the financial crisis of 2008 onwards and the EU has come through that in reasonably good condition,” she says.
There was the euro and debt crisis, the 2015 migration crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. “When push came to shove in all those other crises, the EU proved to be resilient and robust,” Laffan says.
A peace deal in the Ukraine war that emboldens Moscow and cripples Kyiv could dwarf those previous tests, by raising the prospect of Russia some day attacking a neighbouring EU state.
There are problems inside the house as well. The EU may finally have to grasp the Viktor Orbán-shaped nettle that has long been a major irritation. Hungary’s pro-Trump, far-right prime minister has become even more brazen in blocking foreign policy decisions that need unanimous support.
Slovakia’s populist leader Robert Fico has shown some signs of following suit, to oppose support for Ukraine. They could be joined by another obstructor, if far-right front-runner George Simion wins Romania’s presidential election later this month.
Other EU states will ultimately not allow efforts to protect their own security be compromised by one rogue leader in Hungary, Laffan believes. So something might have to give soon, particularly if there are any suspicions around the results of parliamentary elections in Hungary next year, she says.
The EU has gone through several stages of enlargement and has always faced problems in how it takes decisions, Matthijs says.
A more powerful European Commission has been one of the defining features of the union in recent years, he adds. Who do you call when you want to call Europe? “It used to be Angela Merkel and now it’s von der Leyen,” he says.
Many national capitals are quietly happy that the EU’s executive arm is in charge of the bloc’s response to Trump’s tariffs. That has made it difficult for the US administration to exert pressure on individual states and allows for a stronger EU-wide retaliation, which officials hope might push Trump to cut a deal.
Working from the 13th floor of the commission’s Berlaymont office in Brussels, von der Leyen has established herself as a commission president who does reasonably well in a crisis. The first four months of Trump’s White House return suggests Europe will have no shortage of them over the next few years.
