In the wake of the death of Pope Francis, discussion will now turn to the next papal election, or conclave.
Speculation around who is in the running to succeed Francis comes with two health warnings. It is a truism that he who enters a conclave as papabile – the favourite to be pope – emerges as cardinal.
At the last conclave in March 2013 this went very wrong for the Italian bishops. So convinced were they Archbishop of Milan Cardinal Angelo Scola was elected that, as soon as white smoke emerged from the Sistine Chapel chimney, they issued a press release congratulating him on becoming successor to St Peter. But he had not.
The second health warning also concerns the last succession. In February 2013, as word circulated that the pope had resigned, it was widely considered that this was not possible as, of all popes in all of history, Benedict XVI was least likely to do something so radical. He did.
Adding an intriguing backdrop to recent speculation has been talk of the film Conclave, which features actor Ralph Fiennes, who played Dean of the College of Cardinals.
Let’s look at who will be in the Ralph Fiennes role in the upcoming conclave. Current Dean of the College of Cardinals is Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re. He was 91 on January 30th (Pope Francis was 88).
Because of Cardinal Re’s age, it is speculated that the church’s current Camerlengo will play a more significant role in the next conclave (this role is also played by Ralph Fiennes in Conclave).
The Camerlengo announces the death of a pope, takes his ring and destroys it, witnessed by cardinals, before then formally notifying the Dean of the College of Cardinals, whom he assists in preparing the papal funeral and in organising the subsequent conclave. A conclave usually takes place 15 to 20 days after the death of a pope.
He also runs the ordinary affairs of Vatican City-state during the period known as the “sede vacant” (empty seat) before a new pope assumes office. It is he who introduces the new pope to the world from the balcony at St Peter’s.
The current Camerlengo is from Dublin: Cardinal Kevin Farrell (77), the highest-ranking Irishman at the Vatican, spent most of his clerical life in the US. He was responsible for co-ordinating the 2018 World Meeting of Families in Dublin and the visit to Ireland of Pope Francis.
Cardinal Farrell announced the death of the Pope on Monday morning, saying in a statement published by the Vatican on its Telegram channel: “This morning at 07:35 local time (05:35 GMT) the Bishop of Rome, Francis, returned to the home of the Father.”
The Cardinal’s older brother Bishop Brian Farrell (81) was secretary at the Vatican’s Dicastery for Promoting Christian Unity until he retired last year, having worked at the Vatican since 1981. Both men are from Drimnagh, where they were educated by the Christian Brothers before joining the conservative Legionaries of Christ, which both have long since left. Neither served in Ireland.
Currently there are 252 members of the College of Cardinals, 138 of whom are under 80 and so eligible to vote in a conclave. Ireland’s only cardinal, former Archbishop of Armagh Seán Brady, is 85 and so cannot vote.
Of the current College of Cardinals, 163 were appointed by Francis. They come from 76 countries, of which 25 have never represented at the College before, including Haiti, Myanmar, El Salvador, Sweden, Luxembourg and South Sudan.
Altogether 110 (79 per cent) of cardinals eligible to vote in a conclave anytime soon have been appointed by Francis, with 24 (17 per cent) appointed by Benedict XVI and six (4 per cent) appointed by pope John Paul.
It is, therefore, probably safe to say then that the next pope will be in the Francis mould, though that is not guaranteed. After all, the cardinals who elected Francis in 2013 had been appointed by popes Benedict and John Paul II.
The European considered most likely to be next pope is Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech (66), who has been central, as secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, to the ongoing synodal process initiated by Pope Francis. He served on the Roman Rota for many years and has been a bishop in Malta for almost 20 years. Coming from a small country is believed to be an advantage too, not least where current turbulent geopolitics are concerned.
An African papabile is Cardinal Peter Turkson (76), from Ghana, though his age may go against him. Then Francis was 76 when elected in 2013. The Catholic Church is growing rapidly in Africa and having a black pope from the developing world would send out a strong message where many cardinal electors are concerned.
From the East, there’s Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (67), former archbishop of Manila in Asia’s most Catholic country on a continent where Catholicism is also growing fast, and currently prefect at the Vatican’s Congregation for the Evangelisation of Peoples. His mother was Chinese. He has excellent English having studied for seven years in the US and is very close to the thinking of Pope Francis.
In 2012 he spoke at the 50th International Eucharistic Congress in Dublin and again at the world Meeting of Families in 2018 where Tagle, also known as “Chito”, proved charming. He was also papabile in 2013 but emerged a cardinal.
Some suggest that after the Francis papacy perhaps the church needs a steady Italian at the helm again. In that context the man considered most likely is Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (69), Archbishop of Bologna since 2015, cardinal since 2019 and president of the Episcopal Conference of Italy since May 2022.
On this occasion, and if he is elected pope, it is expected his brother Italian bishops will be more restrained in sending out congratulatory messages.
They will most likely wait until he is presented as new pope from the balcony at St Peter’s by the cardinal from Dublin, Kevin Farrell.
