The turkeys mightn't taste so good this Christmas for the Irish provinces, and with two Pro12 derbies on St Stephen's Day, the travelling away teams, Leinster and Connacht, won't have too much festive cheer with their families anyway.
Things actually haven’t looked this grim for the Irish contestants in Europe for some time. Since the format of back-to-back matches in rounds three and four was introduced for the 1999-2000 season, the provinces have never had as low a return of just two wins out of six.
It's all in stark contrast to this point a year ago when Leinster, Ulster and Munster led their respective pools and would go on to reach the knock-out stages. Collectively, they had 10 wins out of a dozen European games at this juncture, compared to a rather more ho-hum record of six wins and six defeats this season.
Even when all four provinces lost in round four two seasons ago, they had won nine out of 16 games collectively, while Ulster were topping their pool and would progress to the quarter-finals along with Munster.
Tough pool
Collectively, Leinster, Munster and Ulster haven’t had so few wins at this point in the pool stages since 2007-08, when the dozen games had yielded five wins and seven defeats. Even then, Munster were topping a tough pool ahead of Clermont and reigning champions Wasps. Hence it is the first time since 2005-06, nine seasons ago, that at least one Irish team wasn’t leading a European Cup pool at Christmas.
Yet in some respects Munster will be hoping this is a case of history repeating itself, for back in 2007-08, they travelled to Clermont in round five and escaped with a bonus point courtesy of a 26-19 defeat. Thanks to that point, Munster advanced instead of Clermont to go on and lift the Heineken Cup for a second time in three years.
Admittedly, Clermont are some way ahead of Munster this time around after inflicting the first consecutive pool defeats on Munster since they lost away to the Ospreys and Toulon in 2010-11 – the only time they have failed to advance in the last 16 seasons.
Ulster are, disappointingly, goosed and already condemned to their first pool exit for five years after under-performing in a tough pool. The reverberations of Jerome Garces' red card to Jared Payne in the Ravenhill quarter-final last April are still being felt.
Using current league standings as the crude yardstick, pool three with reigning champions Toulon and Leicester, as well as the Scarlets, it could be said that Ulster are in the second-toughest pool. But by whatever yardstick you use (three semi-finalists in each of the last two seasons, and teams lying first, second, fourth and sixth in their leagues), pool one with Clermont, Saracens, Munster and Sale is the hardest.
Munster, along with Saracens and Clermont, were also unlucky in that there are no turkeys in their group. Whereas Sale have remained competitive –only allowing their opponents one bonus point to date – Treviso and the predictably disinterested pair of Castres and Montpellier have donated 29 points out of a possible 30 to their opponents in rounds three and four.
On the fairly safe premise that this trio retain their charitable nature in the latter rounds, it is not inconceivable that the three pools concerned provide the three best runners-up.
Herein lies another huge flaw in the revamped Cup. Along with the decision not to award the Challenge Cup winners with a place in the Champions Cup, a new seeding system for the main competition based solely on domestic league standings was also designed to heighten the value of the respective leagues, but it has discredited the Champions Cup too. That is because there is no incentive for disinterested teams to remain competitive, nor any punishment for not doing so.
Hence, even by their standards, Munster are in a tricky position, and Leinster have allowed Harlequins to gain an edge in the head-to-heads over the last two weekends as well. The net effect is that both may have to win their remaining two matches, including away wins over Premiership sides.
Daunting task
Munster continue to have the more daunting task, as they have to beat Saracens on their all-weather Allianz Park on the penultimate weekend to stay alive. That said, Leinster will quite probably need to beat Castres at home that weekend and then also Wasps away in round six, preferably with a bonus point or two, and especially if they are in the mix for one of the best runners-up.
Nonetheless, the value of Munster’s bonus point courtesy of that repeat 26-19 defeat at Stade Marcel-Michelin on Sunday now looks even more pronounced. Munster’s tally of 10 points gives them a shot at being one of the three best runners-up, and even being competitive in pool one, in a way that nine points wouldn’t have done.
It looks like the big-budget quartet of French clubs (Toulon, Clermont, Toulouse and Racing) will be in the quarters, along with Northampton, and possibly Harlequins and Leinster, and one more, with Saracens, Glasgow, Bath and Wasps also still in contention.
Munster may still need another bonus point or two, and even a favour from Montpellier or Bath against Glasgow. But being the drama kings they are, it would be no surprise if Anthony Foley’s pronouncement that they will keep fighting until the 80th minute of their final game at home to Sale proves prophetic.
gthornley@irishtimes.com
