It is up to Ulster to decide whether tonight’s match represents a milestone or a millstone. There is massive expectation, justifiably so, borne of a stunning 14-match unbeaten run, and the character shown in regaining their playing equilibrium after a mid-season speed wobble.

The manner of their exit from the Heineken Cup is a reminder past performance is no guarantee of future success. They'll have to earn their place in the Pro12 final by dint of what they bring to the pitch tonight.

There is no collateral to be gleaned from the fact they have already beaten the Scarlets twice in the tournament or that the Welsh club reserved a shockingly inept display for their final home match last weekend, a 41-17 trouncing by Benetton Treviso. The Scarlets could have missed out but Leinster’s victory over the Ospreys ensured they didn’t.

That performance was more likely an aberration because a club that finishes fourth over 22 matches can hardly be described as lucky. Motivation comes in many forms but last weekend's display and the booing that accompanied the final whistle will still smart and tonight offers a shot at absolution.

One change
Scarlets's coach Simon Easterby makes one change to the team from the Treviso match with Welsh outhalf Rhys Priestland restored to the starting line-up after a couple of appearances off the bench. Emyr Phillips and Garth Owen take over from Matthew Rees (groin) and Gareth Maule (thumb) among the replacements.

Llanelli’s backline possesses pace and guile and contains two Lions who will be travelling to Hong Kong and Australia in George North and Jonathan Davies. While the eye is naturally drawn to the Welsh side’s backs, their openside flanker Josh Turnbull maintains that the pack stand up favourably to comparison.

"People have written our scrum off but we have turned that into a bit of a weapon while our lineout is the best in the league. To be fair Danny Wilson (forwards' coach) has really put pressure on the boys to know their roles. It is down to us to . . . prove everyone wrong and there have been times this season when we have done that. Hopefully we can produce the ball for what people say is one of the best backlines in Europe."

Ulster selection
Ulster coach Mark Anscombe makes four changes and a positional switch; Paddy Jackson, Tom Court, Declan Fitzpatrick all return while Ruan Pienaar switches from outhalf to scrumhalf. John Afoa has not recovered from his hamstring injury. Ulster's set-piece will be crucial to providing the quick ruck ball, and offloading game that has caused problems for so many teams this season.

Stuart Olding has played with a maturity and vision that has complemented his obvious ability. He faces a tough physical challenge against Welsh international Scott Williams in what promises to be an interesting midfield duel, where Darren Cave will measure himself against Davies.

Ulster fullback Jared Payne is a beautifully balanced runner who glides through gaps, possessing the spatial awareness and timing to bring out the best in Tommy Bowe and Andrew Trimble. Ulster will look to control the game at halfback, maximising Pienaar's game management skills.

Ulster supporters will stand shelter in the Old Grandstand for a final time tonight, an edifice that was first opened on January 12th, 1924. Demolition works begins next week but supporters will hope their team that dons the hard hats tonight.
ULSTER: J Payne; A Trimble, D Cave, S Olding, T Bowe; P Jackson, R Pienaar; T Court, R Best, D Fitzpatrick; J Muller (capt), D Tuohy; R Diack, C Henry, N Williams. Replacements: R Herring, C Black, R Lutton, I Henderson, M McComish, P Marshall, M Allen, P Nelson.
SCARLETS: L Williams; G North, J Davies, S Williams, A Fenby; R Priestland, A Davies; P John, K Owens, S Lee; G Earle, J Synman; A Shingler, J Turnbull, R McCusker (capt). Replacements: E Phillips, R Jones, J Adriannse, J Ball, S Timani, G Davies, O Williams, G Owen.
Referee: Alain Rolland (IRFU)