A unique, staggered, three-way tussle for the title has ensured that whatever the Six Nations has lacked in quality it has atoned for with the grandest of finales. With third-placed Wales followed by Ireland and then leaders England in the Twickenham climax, it could hardly have been scripted better, especially if you're English and/or a BBC executive.
To recap, with all three protagonists on six points, Wales start the jamboree away to Italy on +12, followed by Ireland away to Scotland on +33 and finally England, on +37, kicking off at home to France.
Accordingly, the bookies make England odds-on favourites, and one ventures either Warren Gatland or Joe Schmidt would assuredly swap places with Stuart Lancaster, given England have the advantage of kicking off last and thus knowing exactly what is required, and do so with a lubricated full house at home. Come, say, the final 10 minutes, that advantage could be incalculable.
Ireland had the advantage of kicking off last a year ago in Paris, with the clarity of knowing a win would clinch the title.
“We hadn’t a great record in Paris so there was no change in focus for us,” said Paul O’Connell after Ireland’s captain’s run in Murrayfield.
Mindset
“It was just try to go and do something that Irish teams don’t do all that often and try to find a way to get any kind of result. It’s probably a good way to focus the mind, it’s a good way to go into the game. For us tomorrow, in my opinion it’s the same thing. It’s a very tough place to win, especially with a team that’s improving but has struggled to get the results.”
Yet the mindset looks simplest for Wales, who haven’t won the championship on the final day away from Cardiff since Paris in 1971. Knowing that they have to win by more than 25 points to set targets beyond that of a mere win for Ireland and England they may as well just go for it.
For Ireland, the equation looks murkiest of all, not least as they won’t know what is needed to stay above Wales until shortly before kick-off. Ireland first have to win, but even then they won’t know what will be enough to retain the title for the first time since the 1940s, pending events at Twickenham, when they will then be dependent on the French.
Then there is the not inconsiderable obstacle of those Scottish party poopers. They are in familiar territory, seeking to salvage their season with one win; something they have almost turned into an art form. In the 15 previous championships, Scotland have only been whitewashed twice (2004 and 2012), managing one win in six of the last eight seasons, and finishing fifth in five of the last seven.
“Sometimes having nothing to lose, playing at home against a team that has something to win is a great position to be in,” noted O’Connell. “It’s an empowering position, I’ve been there with Ireland before against England.”
Progress
Victory here will underline progress under
Vern Cotter
after defeats by seven and 12 points away to France and England either side of three-point home defeats to Wales and Italy.
Once more they look as if they could be tricky opponents for Ireland. As was the case four years ago when Ireland lost four attacking lineouts, the advent of Jonny Gray alongside Jim Hamilton has not dimmed their set-piece, they have a hard-carrying backrow, have unearthed a good midfield and Stuart Hogg has accrued the tournament’s most yardage.
Ireland have lost on three of their last six visits here, while the three wins have been by one, seven and three points. Nor does the presence of Jerome Garces along with Argentinian Federico Anselmi, who apparently signalled the last penalty against Ireland in Cardiff, exactly inspire confidence.
Admittedly, that Hogg has also had to make so many try-saving tackles is evidence of their porous defence, witness England’s 17 line-breaks last week, and if any team is equipped to locate holes it is surely Joe Schmidt and co.
True, Ireland have only scored four tries to date – two of them off lineout mauls – yet Luke Fitzgerald and Cian Healy might freshen things up, Paul O'Connell and Simon Easterby will sharpen the lineout, Jamie Heaslip and Seán O'Brien will benefit from the gametime, while Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton should have big games after last week, and Ireland ought rediscover their aerial prowess. Lest we forget, plenty else worked last week and in the 10 wins previously.
Ireland are a more developed, experienced (861 caps in the squad to Scotland’s 446) and better side. An early try would do wonders for them.
Sell-out
Staggered kick-offs are unfair, but although the sun struggled to break through the clouds in Edinburgh on Friday, at least the forecast seems set fair for all three cities. Helpfully, if unusually for a Murrayfield fixture, it’s been a sell-out for months, with a huge Irish presence expected.
Perhaps they made plans expecting a Slam decider but, like the squad, will have to settle for a shot at retaining the title. Ireland to win, but knowing exactly what will be required come kick-off, it looks like England's to lose. Allez les bleus.
