A Kiwi dollar for Warren Gatland's thoughts as his attention turns to Wales's tour to New Zealand this June. There is still no better place to judge a player than a Test series against the All Blacks away from home, particularly at the end of a long and demanding season. It will be a similar story for England in Australia, with the Wallabies already forewarned by Eddie Jones that the visitors are eyeing a 3-0 series win, while Ireland and Scotland are heading to South Africa and Japan respectively.
With the 2017 British and Irish Lions tour to New Zealand also on the horizon there is certainly more significance attached to these games than is sometimes the case in the summer immediately following a World Cup. Assuming Gatland is reappointed as the Lions’ head coach, it is never too soon to start pondering options and working out how best to outflank the world champions. Outflank is perhaps the wrong word, given the pace of the All Black back three. Outwit is probably a more precise one because to stand any chance – take a look at the fiendish schedule and weep – the Lions will need to play smart as opposed to loose.
With so little preparation time the game plan will have to be simple without necessarily being simplistic. Rule one is that New Zealand will kill you from turnover ball and skewer one-dimensional opponents with the quality of their skills elsewhere. The Lions, accordingly, must go at them hard in the set pieces and also force their hosts to think twice with ball in hand.
In those respects the recent Six Nations was more encouraging than the overall quality of the tournament might suggest. What would the All Blacks really hate the Lions to turn up with next summer? An excellent scrummaging tighthead? Check. A dominant lineout? Check. World-class, destructive ball-carriers at Nos8 and 12? Check. Clever half-backs and ominous power and pace out wide? Double check. The 2017 Lions, injuries permitting, could potentially possess more dynamism than most.
Consider, for example, the lock and No8 positions. If you were picking a Lions XV this week, the up-and-coming English trio of George Kruis, Maro Itoje and Billy Vunipola would all be there or thereabouts.
Alternatively, you could go for the Welsh triumvirate of Alun Wyn Jones, Luke Charteris and Taulupe Faletau, with Ireland's Iain Henderson, Scotland's Jonny Gray, England's Joe Launchbury, Ireland's Jamie Heaslip and the soon-to-be-qualified Wasps No8 Nathan Hughes in reserve.
When the outstanding Wyn Jones is not an absolute nailed-on Test starter the Lions are in a half-decent place; if Itoje and Kruis keep developing at their current rate, the competition will be intense either way.
The fly-half situation will be fascinating, too. With a top marksman such as Owen Farrell able to fill in at centre, there is a fair chance that two from Jonathan Sexton, Dan Biggar, George Ford and Finn Russell will have to miss out. Sexton, at his best, remains the market leader but Ford is definitely one to watch this summer. With Manu Tuilagi at his elbow and a decent pack in front of him, his ability to give those outside him a crucial extra half yard of space is only going to improve with more Test experience.
Bolters? Elliot Daly, Mark Bennett, Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose will all be pushing Jonathan Joseph and Jonathan Davies hard, with Scott Williams, Cory Allen and Alex Dunbar not far behind. Ultan Dillane is a real prospect and Luke Cowan-Dickie is a handful whenever he plays. More risky, perhaps, but Christian Wade is still the most lethal finisher in Britain. Will Leigh Halfpenny be fit? What price his Toulon team-mate Steffon Armitage? Or Scotland's highly effective Kiwi-reared openside John Hardie?
Mesh it all together – as ever with the Lions, it is the blend that makes all the difference – and the only thing missing is World Cup-winning pedigree. Individually none of the home unions made the World Cup semi-finals. Collectively they will have only a desperately short period in which to gel. But then you pencil in a possible Lions Test team (see below) and realise that seven or eight of the XV would have at least a reasonable shout of making a New Zealand side suddenly lacking the McCaws, Carters, Nonus and Conrad Smiths of this world. The Kiwi replacements will be hugely capable, as always, but the Lions should arrive holding a few more aces this time. The 2017 expedition will be hard work but, on the currently available evidence, it is not mission impossible.
Possible 2017 British and Irish Lions XV: S Hogg (Scotland); A Watson (England), J Davies (Wales), M Tuilagi (England), G North (Wales); J Sexton (Ireland), R Webb (Wales); C Healy (Ireland), D Hartley (England), WP Nel (Scotland), G Kruis (England), M Itoje (England), S O'Brien (Ireland), S Warburton (Wales), B Vunipola (England).
Replacements: L Cowan-Dickie (England), R Evans (Wales), A W Jones (Wales), T Faletau (Wales), C Murray (Ireland), O Farrell (England), E Daly (England).
(Guardian service)
