Over the summer I’ve been preoccupied with the OODA Loop. Maybe it’s the various challenges business continually presents that’s encouraged me to Observe; Orient; Decide and Act. Or maybe it’s the RWC 2015 or the competition for places in the ever-tightening Irish squad or the wonderful battles ahead where France, in particular, hold the key to our semi-final aspirations. Either way what we observe will inform ‘our’ squad selection and team tactics on RWC match No 39 when we take on France in the Millennium Stadium.
From tomorrow 45 players will slowly lose 14 elite team-mates. The fact that players of the ilk of British & Irish Lion, Simon Zebo may not make the plane to the tournament places huge emphasis on the coming matches combined with the training camps.
To explore this I give you Boyd, the Fighter Pilot who changed the Art of War. Four years of research from military strategist and USAF colonel John Boyd in the 70s produced an 11-page document called 'Destruction and Creation' where he explored the relationship between an observer and that which is being observed.
He had in mind a Russian MiG fighter pilot being pursued by a USAF pilot on board an F-86 Sabre or F-16 where the process of observation and feedback changes what is observed.
This has crucial implications for our team tactics down the tracks, (creating confusion/space against France based on what we observe and feedback therein) but for now it is our players who need to understand.
Change behaviour
Those in successive World Cup squads can testify to the horror of observation; but this bunch are being observed like never before. Observation can change behaviour. Irish supporters heading to the Millennium Stadium knowing they are being observed by TV3’s television cameras will most likely sing, wave and shout joyously at the cameras.
Surround Cardiff with mass security (military & police) and the same jovial supporters sensing a different observation will most likely become defensive, cautious in mood; they change.
Of course Joe Schmidt’s powerful presence has impacted the players’ behaviour where players drawn from the four provinces, conscious of his ever-observing eye, have blended into the one unit for possibly the first time in Ireland’s long rugby history. Perhaps that’s his greatest gift to our often underperforming rugby side.
Watchful eye
No doubt he is aware his players will react differently under his watchful eye than under that of the provincial coaches. Potential changes in his players will occur over these weeks where he will then have to alter his relationship with what he is observing as this process shapes what is being observed but the feedback will also shape Schmidt’s outlook.
This is crucial as with the Irish crowd tomorrow the security officer outside Cardiff’s stadium, knowing that his presence will impact the behaviour of the crowd, will, like Schmidt, become even more vigilant as they know that a supporter or a player will disguise their behaviour accordingly.
The player that understands this process is best placed to become selected for RWC 2015. Those who don’t, or struggle to conform to this process are most likely to miss out. Tomorrow’s team selection and performance is our first window into this process.
New whole
We, the spectators, will no doubt analyse the evidence of the coming matches and make our own deductions. However I fancy Schmidt will synthesize from various sometimes unrelated components putting them together to form a new whole.
Why does he go for wingers Fergus McFadden and Andrew Trimble over Zebo?
Zebo the possible antitheses of Schmidt, is as special an unfettered talent as we’ve ever produced but is at times prone to his way, evidenced by his outrageous ‘left foot catch’ against Wales leading to Cian Healy’s crucial try. Under Schmidt’s watchful eye, ball-carrying techniques and ball placement in heavy contact are much more important to the team whereas Zebo’s body position late in Munster’s season threatened ball retention.
Has he finally learned that Schmidt requires a different feedback in order to get into his starting teams? If he has, then climb on board.
Why the OODA Loop? Well Boyd created it! The best commander is one who wins while avoiding battle by creating confusion, disorder, panic and chaos. Much of Ireland's successful play under Schmidt doesn't have this effect on the opposition. It's highly commendable but based on precision of plays, breakdowns, one-out winnable rucks etc. These are of course crucial building blocks to our RWC but Warren Gatland in RWC 2011 managed better 'fingertip feel' where his instinct of what was needed outweighed ours.
To this end the Irish management have hinted at a broadening of the playbook through the RWC and into Six Nations 2016. Much of what’s at play is best described by Von Clausewitz and Sun Tzu, both immense commanders. There are many instances where inferior forces defeated larger forces. In doing so they usually avoided a war of attrition; electing for deception (Zebo’s left foot catch?), speed (Zebo et al?), fluidity of action (offloads?) and strength against weakness (counter attack?) which were designed to confuse causing the enemy, as Boyd noted, “to unravel before the fight”.
To beat France and to make the final we need transition or as Boyd put it; “Sun Tzu tried to drive his adversary bananas while Clausewitz tried to keep from being driven bananas”.
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