Both the Grand Slam and Champions Cup in 2018 were built around Devin Toner. I am gutted for my former team-mate.
Why would Joe Schmidt turn away from guaranteed lineout possession so close to the World Cup? Why is he placing so much faith in Iain Henderson or James Ryan to nail the calls?
This wasn’t a knee-jerk decision. This was the Ireland management making the toughest of selection calls armed with all the information we do not possess.
It’s a calculated risk, but I understand it. Schmidt has picked a squad with individuals who will be assigned specific tasks from game to game, week to week.
Leaky ships are common enough on the high seas. Schmidt puts a lot of pressure on information being kept in house but when you get dropped from a squad you tell your wife or girlfriend. She’ll tell her parents. You better let your folks know too, as people would have flights or hotels to cancel. A small posse of mates need gathering for midweek sorrow pints.
That’s nine different players telling at least four people who would have confided in their nearest and dearest on Sunday night or Monday morning.
This is Ireland after all. The management and communications department should have known full well this information was going to get out. The announcement wasn’t a great look for the IRFU, especially following the record defeat at Twickenham one week after a warm weather flogging.
Still, I don’t think any of this pre-tournament planning will impact on how the team performs against Scotland or Japan (who face a fully stocked Springboks on Friday). Serious work is being done behind closed doors at Carton House. I say that with certainty. Also, there is clarity among the playing group now.
It's desperately harsh on Dev, Will Addison, Jordi Murphy and Jack McGrath.
Worse than what I experienced in 2003 and 2015 when, 12 years apart, I looked around the training paddock a week before the squad was named and couldn’t point out the 32nd man.
Oh God. It’s me.
McGrath probably saw the writing on the wall after the Six Nations or certainly after Dave Kilcoyne's performance in Cardiff last weekend but the other three players would have been listening to Joe in a state of shock. Like in the movies when a person is told bad news and Schmidt's voice lowers to a hum in the background as you look out the window and feel a sense of unreality. This cannot be happening to me. Not after everything I have sacrificed to make the plane to Japan.
You not only put your life on hold you put your club rugby career on hold. Nothing matters more to an elite rugby player.
Conservative approach
I was devastated when cut in 2003 by Eddie O’Sullivan (who simply ripped the band-aid off in one clean stroke having warned me on tour of Tonga and Samoa earlier that summer he “didn’t think I had enough discipline” to play international rugby) but I saw it coming ever since a bonding night in Bilbao during summer training camp.
The beers were beginning to flow when Ireland captain Keith Wood sidled up to me with the bluntest information I’ve ever been given: “I don’t think you are good enough to play for Ireland.”
Keith walked away as I nose-dived into my pint glass. The words were ringing in my ears the next morning as we went training, but I began to realise Woody was watching a young player who was off the tempo.
I hadn’t shown my peers what I was capable of doing. Poor decision-making in drills and a conservative approach for basic moves exposed a 23-year-old moving at provincial pace, trying to avoid mistakes, rather than an international candidate. When I looked around the pitch and started counting bodies it dawned on me: it’s me or Paddy Wallace and Paddy was genuine cover at fullback, centre and outhalf.
Paddy was involved in almost every play whereas I was a tackle bag.
Not good enough; a crushing feeling lasted the entire week in Spain.
On return home I ignored the call from Eddie when it came. Eventually I rang him back.
Being dropped was an alien feeling. I always made the team. I played for Ireland at 19. That was part of the problem. After wallowing in my own misery for a while I took Keith’s words “not good enough to play for Ireland” – and used them. Back in Leinster, I rebuilt my career from scratch, ably assisted by Gary Ella seeing what was obvious to the former Wallaby centre but nobody else. My days on the wing were numbered but life in the centre was about to begin.
It could so easily have gone the other way.
In August 2015, the 11th-hour cut was no less painful but there was a sense of relief because after Joe delivered the bad news I knew my very existence up to that point – Gordon D’Arcy, rugby player – was no longer a reality.
The End.
I wish it was that easy for Dev. But it’s not. Going home to tell your wife is excruciating. Yes, you have your health and family life is good but all your energy, your entire focus has gone into playing for Ireland at the World Cup. Suddenly, all that gets taken away from you.
So many people around you have made ridiculous sacrifices and, out of nowhere, it is not going to happen. Dev will be destroyed this week and I can tell you it takes a lot to rattle the big guy.
Bold decision
Same goes for Jordi, Jack and Will, especially considering they must eventually pull on their Ulster gear and get to work on Pro14 preparations.
What I will say about Jean Kleyn and Tadhg Beirne going to Japan ahead of Toner is it's a bold decision by Schmidt. It also sends a very clear message to Henderson and Ryan: on your heads does Ireland's set-piece, and World Cup aspirations, now rest.
The Dev safety pin has been discarded. Fix the lineout. Fix it now. In fairness, the low-risk calls we saw in Cardiff got the set-piece back on track but hopefully Alun Wyn Jones pitches up at the Aviva this weekend. Simon Easterby needs to pit his two inexperienced Test-match callers against one of the all-time greats.
Excel against Wyn Jones and confidence will soar. The memory of what Maro Itoje did to Henderson and Rory Best in Twickenham must never fade but it all can be shaped into ensuring ideal preparation.
Enough about lineouts from a 5ft 11in retired centre. I am concerned about Addison’s exclusion. His injury profile, Schmidt did reference a calf problem in pre-season, must have been a concern but he looked fully healed last Saturday when producing a slick fullback display made for the Test arena.
Leaving him out could be a mistake. Joe is going with Chris Farrell as a third “pure centre” while continuing to consider Garry Ringrose as cover at wing, fullback and outhalf (I’d start to get very worried about my place in the team if the coach started saying I can cover all these positions as I played there in school. Garry better not inform Joe he was primarily a scrumhalf up until under-16s).
But that's not where I feel Addison missed out. Jordan Larmour and Andrew Conway are very similar wing/fullbacks to cover Rob Kearney, Jacob Stockdale and Keith Earls. Conway's form earned him selection but I just feel Addison offers a second playmaker option that Ireland do not possess while Joey Carbery is injured.
Presumably, Schmidt fully intends to use Carbery at fullback during the Pool stages. I am not suggesting Rob Kearney is dropped. Far from it. This World Cup, like the previous two, will only be won using at least 33, 34 players.
And I don’t mean a few minutes here and there. Henderson and Ryan are the starting locks, the power source of Ireland’s pack, but I fully expect Kleyn and Beirne clock up 160 minutes during the Pool stages.
The Munster secondrow pairing could play two full games against Russia and Samoa, although it will probably be spread out between all four games with someone like Rhys Ruddock or Jack Conan finishing a game or two at lock.
Steady hand
Every one of the 31-man squad will feature. It’s the only way Ireland make the knockout stages in good shape. Schmidt has proven himself an expert at mixing and matching selection. Having played under him for five years, picking up five shiny medals, I suggest we keep the faith.
Kieran Marmion losing out to Luke McGrath has me conflicted. There is no change up with Luke for Conor Murray so it seems like the pair of them will play the full 80 minutes in two Pool games each. McGrath is a steady head while Marmion is the type of scrumhalf who can change up a game.
But, for better or worse, this is the Ireland squad.
I could list off the best starting XV right now and tell you the ideal bench, but it doesn’t matter. That list of 23 names will not be the players we see at Tokyo Stadium on October 19th or 20th for the quarter-finals.
The starting team will constantly change, as Schmidt will plan a few tweaks to maximise performance in the Pool defining games
We need to stop looking at the selection process in that way. For example, to say Ringrose is the starting 13 is too narrow a view.
Schmidt has tailored his squad to combat the power game that will dominate at this tournament. That’s why Kleyn and Rhys Ruddock got the call over Toner and Murphy. They are stronger men and size looks like it will trump guile.
It’s also reflective of how Ireland are currently playing. If Ringrose doesn’t start against Scotland, let’s say Farrell or Henshaw gets the nod, it probably means he comes in fresh against Japan.
The starting team will constantly change, as Schmidt will plan a few tweaks to maximise performance in the Pool defining games that fall six days apart.
Why else would Schmidt mention Kleyn’s selection being based on the need to tour with a specialist “tighthead lock”. I am sceptical of the South African’s physicality. I haven’t seen enough of him in the big games he played for Munster but Ireland need to counteract the arrival of RG Snyman – 6t 10ins and 117kg – with 30 minutes to go in a do or die quarter-final.
Kleyn might be that man for that battle, and so inch Ireland into the semi-final with Beirne’s jackalling abilities perfectly suited for late impact against Australia or Wales.
There’s no room for passengers at a World Cup. Ireland learned this to their cost in 2015. As did New Zealand during their outhalf crisis of 2011. We will see at least one call-up from Marmion, Jordi, Jack, Dev and Addison before October is over.
Now, what about Alun Wyn...
