One of the biggest problems with the notion of a globally aligned rugby season is that the Six Nations might be moved from its slot early in the calendar year. No sport should ever be hostage to history but rugby messes with that tradition at its peril. Mid-winter, hip flasks, sheepskin coats and all that.
It’s always a timely lift for the spirits and after this January, whether dry or not, rarely has the onset of the sport’s oldest international tournament on the first weekend of February appeared more potentially uplifting.
But that depends on whether the Government approves the return to capacity crowds at outdoor sports events. As things stand on advice from Nphet, the Government has decreed attendances at outdoor sporting events have been limited to 5,000 or half the stadium – whichever is the smaller.
As to the science behind not having more than 5,000 in the 80,000-capacity Croke Park or 50,000-capacity Aviva, while permitting 3,000 in, say the Sportsground? Well, never mind.
Meanwhile, Wales' ban on crowds at sporting events will be lifted in full this coming Friday by their first minister Mark Drakeford, meaning supporters will now be able to fill the Principality Stadium for the reigning champions' three home Six Nations matches.
Scotland will also play their Six Nations opener against England in front of a 67,000 full house at Murrayfield on Saturday, February 5th, the same day Ireland host Wales in the Aviva Stadium, in light of their first minister Nicola Sturgeon deciding to relax the rule limiting attendances at outdoor events to 500 after January 17th.
The IRFU could not leave selling tickets until a week out from the Welsh game, so they have already sold their 50,000-plus tickets
Meanwhile, nothing changes in England. No restrictions there.
The French government decided that attendances would be limited to 5,000 outdoors and 2,000 indoors for three weeks until next Monday and are to make a decision on whether to ease those restrictions this week.
The French Federation have sold 75,000 tickets for their opening two home games against Italy and Ireland at the Stade de France and are hopeful their government will allow that to come to pass.
The Italian Federation are restricted to 50 per cent capacity for their games at the Stadio Olimpico, but as their attendances are generally around half the 70,000 capacity that won’t inconvenience them too much.
The IRFU could not leave selling tickets until a week out from the Welsh game, so they have already sold their 50,000-plus tickets. A capacity Six Nations crowd generates in the region of €5 million in gate receipts per game. This includes 10-year ticket holders, although as things stand even they don’t know for sure whether they will be able to attend the game in 19 days’ time.
Hence, if the attendance were restricted to 75 per cent or 50 per cent of capacity, it would leave the Union with a shortfall of roughly €1.25 million or €2.5 million.
Nphet are expected to meet this Thursday, with the Cabinet rumoured to be discussing their recommendations the following day. The Cabinet would probably be receptive to easing the restrictions prior to the Six Nations and all the indications are that Jack Chambers, the Minister of State for Sport, has been a positive voice on behalf of sport.
A working group including the IRFU, GAA, FAI, Department of Sport and Sport Ireland, and expert advisers, was set up in October 2020 under Martin Murphy, the Aviva Stadium director, to investigate the safe reopening of stadiums and the return of spectators to sports events in a graduated manner.
It was their work which helped lead to restricted attendances at Leinster and Ireland games last June, and increased limits across all three sports, culminating in a full house for the Ireland-New Zealand game last November. Every match across all three sports was reviewed.
That working group met again on Monday and will make their case for having stadiums fully reopened.
It’s worth noting that at all of the November internationals at the Aviva Stadium, as with the other sports, the IRFU make proof of vaccination a condition of purchasing a ticket and also of entry, by way of random checks at the gates on match day.
Most probably France, as well as England, Scotland and Wales, will give approval for capacity crowds in time for the Six Nations
The IRFU have the capacity to track and trace any supporter who attended any of the three games. But there has been no request from the HSE to any of the three big sporting organisations arising from a match taking place to ascertain close contacts of any positive cases. Hence, the only conclusion is that the gradual return of capacity crowds was done on a safe basis and with no outbreaks of Covid.
Hand sanitisers are commonplace and mask-wearing, although not deemed obligatory by either Nphet or the Government, is encouraged. It’s an outdoor event, with everyone facing the same way.
One fears that Nphet, consistently cautious, will recommend a gradual return to full stadiums over a period of time. But no other country in the Six Nations is doing this.
Most probably France, as well as England, Scotland and Wales, will give approval for capacity crowds in time for the Six Nations. Aside from enabling Ireland to compete on a level playing field and the IRFU to generate around €15 million in gate receipts, as proven by that memorable All Blacks game it would be a huge morale boost for a sizeable chunk of the sports-following Irish public.
The 50,000-plus tickets sold also include an estimated 8,000 Welsh supporters. Although the Ireland-Italy game in the 2020 Six Nations was initially postponed, correctly so, in the interests of public safety, the memories remain of Italian fans who still travelled over and were dotted outside the Aviva and around Dublin that weekend.
Likewise, those 8,000 Welsh fans will still travel, not least as in many instances they would not be refunded. So rather than spend their days inside in pubs, it would surely be in the interests of public safety for them to enjoy the outdoor Irish air on the first weekend of February for a few hours. And, of course, see their team beaten by Ireland.
gthornley@irishtimes.com
