In normal times Joe Schmidt would enjoy every minute of his return to Dublin, a city where he enjoyed so much success with Leinster and with Ireland.
This week is different. Schmidt leads a Wallabies team that are performing poorly after two defeats against England and Italy with the momentum he painstakingly built up from a standing start at risk of grinding slowly to a halt.
There is a collective amnesia in some parts of the rugby public in Australia, who forget the bin fire Schmidt took over after the Wallabies were dumped out of the 2023 World Cup pool stages under Eddie Jones.
Players were unhappy, out of confidence, with some wondering was it worth the hassle to turn out for Australia. That all changed under Schmidt. Players loved his detail, craved the tough feedback and spoke openly about his care for them as individuals.
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The problem with progress is it builds lofty expectations, something the Wallabies have not enjoyed for a long time.
Since Schmidt officially started in March last year, the team slowly but surely became one capable of beating anyone in the world. It really started a year ago when a late flick pass from centre Len Ikitau to Max Jorgensen sealed an unlikely win over England at Twickenham.
Last August a comprehensive win in the third Test against the British and Irish Lions and then a stunning comeback win against South Africa in Ellis Park did the impossible.
Across Sydney, you saw people proudly wearing Wallabies jerseys in the park in the manner of former Australian prime minister John Howard, who would famously wear one in the capital Canberra on his morning walks after famous victories. Given Howard led the country from 1996 to 2007, he had a lot of practice, particularly at the start of his tenure.
Recently, though, the majority of gold jerseys have been back in Australian wardrobes, gathering dust.
After coming dangerously close to breaking New Zealand’s 51-Test unbeaten record in September at Eden Park in the Rugby Championship, fatigue, injuries and game plans slowly started to unravel.
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It must be remembered that Schmidt initially wanted to step down as Wallabies coach post the Lions tour, but agreed to stay on to ensure there would be a smooth handover to the incoming coach Les Kiss, who will start next July after finishing with the Queensland Reds.
Schmidt has been juggling two priorities. Keeping the fragile momentum of Australian rugby going with much-needed victories, while also planning for the Rugby World Cup in 2027 on which he won’t be judged.
Last year, he gave 19 Wallabies their debuts; in the squad in Dublin there are 12 of them. Lock Jeremy Williams, flanker Carlo Tizzano, centre Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii and winger Max Jorgensen are key players for Australia.
Schmidt has also revived the careers of others who were discarded by Jones, including two world-class operators in fullback Tom Wright and centre Len Ikitau. Captain Harry Wilson and starting scrumhalf Jake Gordon were also not considered good enough for the World Cup squad, but both have had new leases of life under Schmidt.
In terms of building desperately needed depth in Australia, Schmidt has overdelivered. But this is a country that has little patience for long-term projects, it demands the sugar hits of victories. The 25-7 defeat by England on November 1 was mitigated by the loss of key players, due to club commitments or injuries, such as giant lock Will Skelton, Wright, Ikitau and young outhalf Tom Lynagh.
Saturday’s 26-19 loss against Italy cast a far darker shadow. Ireland are well-acquainted with the ability of Italy from the Six Nations, but in Australia it was considered completely unacceptable to lose to the country.
In January 2023 Wallabies coach Dave Rennie lost his job after defeat the previous November in Florence. Obviously that won’t happen to Schmidt, but he has faced criticism for not picking Ikitau or not having more options at outhalf including veteran James O’Connor or Ben Donaldson.
Schmidt is back in Dublin with one of the biggest challenges he has faced in his decorated coaching career. He looks after the attack for the Wallabies and it failed to make inroads against England or Italy, with his ball carriers consistently unable to break the gainline.
Even more difficult for Schmidt to stomach will have been the team’s recent indiscipline and inability to secure their own rucks. The Monday review in Dublin unearthed some harsh truths for a team on the precipice of going home from Europe without a win.
I was the only journalist from Australia present after the defeat in Udine, Italy. It felt a bit like being invited to a faraway funeral, where you are the only person asked to speak. Words didn’t come easy for anyone. Schmidt and his captain Wilson looked exhausted as they tried to articulate how Italy had comprehensively outplayed them in attack and defence. It was a night when nothing had gone to plan.
Rugby fans often have short memories and far too many in Australia have forgotten the significant contribution that Schmidt has made to the Wallabies, most of which will not benefit his own legacy as a coach. It will be for the future. He is building a stronger platform for his former Ireland defence coach Kiss to flourish when the World Cup returns to Australia.
The Wallabies are wounded, exhausted and at the end of a long season. In recent times this has been when they have produced their most impressive performances. In the second Test defeat against the Lions in Melbourne, nobody gave them a chance to compete after the desperation of their defeat the previous week in Brisbane.
Ireland coach Andy Farrell will be only too aware that Schmidt will be desperate on Saturday to show he is still one of the best coaches in the world in the stadium where he proved it time and again for Leinster and Ireland.
– Jonathan Drennan is a sports reporter for the Sydney Morning Herald
