Well then, if nothing else, this should be very, very interesting, and revealing too. After his sabbatical with the British and Irish Lions, Andy Farrell is back in his day job in earnest this week.
New Zealand to be followed by Japan, Australia and South Africa: all things considered, it looks like Farrell’s most challenging international window since the dark days of the pandemic and the 2021 Six Nations.
Back then, Ireland lost their opening two games away to Wales and at home to France before responding with wins over Italy, Scotland and England. A corner was turned and Farrell’s reign had lift off.
Four years ago this very week, which was also two years out from the World Cup, Farrell told his players – and publicly declared – that the countdown to France 2023 began in earnest with that upcoming November series when Ireland played Japan, New Zealand and Argentina.
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“We should embrace it,” said Farrell. “It is two years off, a long way off, but the road ahead is brilliant for us. The challenges of this year alone are going to stand us in great stead to learn from those experiences. The three games we have coming up are a fantastic opportunity for us to take a step forward.
“The Six Nations is the Six Nations with the pressure to win a trophy and then we finish our season by going to New Zealand on a three-game tour and no Irish side has ever won over there. All these experiences are going to stand to us. We want the nation to be proud of us and why don’t we start embracing that challenge from here on in and use it going forward?”
There followed excellent wins over Japan (60-5), New Zealand (29-20) and Argentina (53-7), and after finishing second in the Six Nations when only losing away to France, Ireland responded to losing the first Test in Eden Park to complete a comeback series win over the All Blacks in New Zealand – only the fifth ever by a touring side.
It also kick-started a 17-match winning run that incorporated the 2023 Grand Slam but, of course, came to a heartbreaking conclusion with that epic 28-24 World Cup quarter-final loss to New Zealand.
There have been fine achievements since then, not least retaining the Six Nations in 2024 and winning the second Test in Durban to draw the series in South Africa.
But after a two-year build-up, that 2023 World Cup always seemed like something of a peak point for that Irish team, not least with Johnny Sexton riding off into the sunset.
The more recent retirements of Peter O’Mahony and Conor Murray, along with the fact that Bundee Aki, James Lowe and Jamison Gibson-Park are among those moving into their mid-30s, is also a factor, especially with the residency ruling extended from three to five years. The Irish system just doesn’t produce those kind of X-factor players.
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Despite the Sexton-Reiko Ioane fallout from the wounding World Cup quarter-final defeat there was scarcely a whiff of atmosphere at the Aviva, much less cordite, when Ireland lost limply to a more match-hardened New Zealand when evidently undercooked in the corresponding November opener 12 months ago, a defeat that was followed by a handsome victory over Fiji and hard-fought 22-19 wins over Argentina and Australia.
Although Farrell has never been too far away, and made Ireland bulk suppliers for the Lions, next Saturday’s clash against New Zealand in Chicago’s Soldier Field is Farrell’s first Test at the helm since that win over Australia, and much has happened in the interim.
Simon Easterby filled in assuredly for Farrell during the Six Nations but the scale of France’s 42-27 win in round four was jarring. There are also psychological wounds from Leinster’s Champions Cup semi-final loss to Northampton and, to an extent, the scale of Leinster’s beating by Munster last Saturday week in Croke Park.
After all, this came within three days of Farrell initially naming a 34-man squad featuring 21 Leinster players to one from Munster, on top of 14 Leinster players taking part in the Lions tour down under compared with just Tadhg Beirne from Munster.
This has shone a light on the balance of the Leinster squad, which was accentuated by not-so-subtle suggestions in Ross Byrne’s interview in these pages last Saturday. There’s little doubt that Leinster’s skill levels on the ball and attacking play have gone backwards, with the defence still at risk of costly bad days, as in that Northampton semi-final.
On the flip side of all that, a change of environment could be invaluable, as indeed it was initially for Leinster ‘s Irish players after the Six Nations when scoring more than a century of points against Harlequins and Glasgow back to back.
Farrell will have to use the two-week build-up to this All Blacks game to somehow bridge the undoubted gap in match hardness and cohesion. The All Blacks have played nine Tests since Ireland concluded the Six Nations, which, with all due respect, seems a more pertinent marker than the summer games against Georgia and Portugal.
While Beirne may be an outlier, his performance ought also be an inspiration (amid even a hint of embarrassment) to the Leinster Lions.
Perhaps, too, the age profile of some of the key players can be overplayed, especially in an Irish system that preserves its prime players so masterfully; Sexton being the prime case in point. If seasoned players are picked, we can be sure they are still scoring high with their performance data.
An extended build-up in Chicago since arriving last Tuesday will also enable Farrell and the management ticket to have them in good spirits.
To win this would be to pull quite a sizeable rabbit out of the hat. To win two out of four would probably be par. Three wins from four would represent a good return. Four from four would be outstanding.
Difficult times. Maybe Farrell can work his magic. This will be interesting and revealing. As Jannik Sinner is wont to say, let’s see what happens.
