When Ireland take on New Zealand at the Aviva next Friday it will be like the battle between two heavyweight world championship contenders, fighting it out to see who is number two on the planet, because there is no doubt that neither is number one.
As the holders of the William Webb Ellis Trophy and the Rugby Championship trophy, the Springboks are unquestionably the best team in the world. Full stop. End of story.
While Ireland have the powerful statistics of defeating the Springboks in four of their last five meetings and hold a 3-2 winning record against the Kiwis across their last five matches, there is no running away from the fact that the World Cup is the only pure measure of global superiority, and Ireland dropped out at the quarter-finals.
Despite reaching the World Cup final, in recent years the New Zealanders have suffered defeats to Ireland, France, Argentina and four in a row against Springboks that has ended their decades-long world dominance.
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The dawning of the reality that the Springboks are better than anything in a black jersey has led to an existential crisis of identity within the Shaky Isles.
The Kiwis have become so accustomed to, as they see it, being superior to all other rugby species on the planet, that the realisation that this image of themselves no longer holds true has come as a crushing blow to their self image.
Until a few years ago, the Kiwis considered their national team similar to the way the Romans thought of the Legions of their ancient Empire. The Romans and the New Zealanders believed their warriors’ global dominance was good for everyone, which of course was true if you were a Roman or a Kiwi. For the rest of humanity, it sucked.
Like the Visigoth hordes sacking the ancient Roman capital, the Irish arrived in New Zealand in 2022 and they did not bother knocking on the front door. Instead, they kicked it off its hinges and the New Zealand mindset has never recovered.
While there is nothing that gives Australians more joy than to see New Zealand rugby in some form of crisis, to quote the title of the 1975 Supertramp album, “Crisis? What crisis?”
The New Zealand rugby media has only two gears. Bragging of how much better their national team is compared to the rest of the world or a panicked internal catastrophe when they lose a few games.
The reality is the national rugby team of New Zealand remains a world powerhouse. While close defeats are never acceptable, New Zealand were only millimetres behind the Springboks in both the World Cup final and their first Test at Ellis Park, both of which should have been won by New Zealand.
With their new coach Scott Robertson only four months into his tenure, compared to Andy Farrell who has been part of the Irish staff for close on a decade, this New Zealand team are only at the beginning of their journey.
So do not be fooled into a false sense of security by the irrational and emotional panic frothing up from the New Zealand rugby media. The New Zealand team that walks on to the turf of the Aviva next Friday will pose the greatest challenge to Ireland since the Eddie Jones-coached England team wiped the floor with green jerseys in the opening match of the 2019 Six Nations.
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For this match, New Zealand have several considerable advantages over Ireland. First, since Ireland last played in Durban in July, New Zealand have played six Rugby Championship matches plus last week’s match against the Cherry Blossoms, who were not so brave, and then Saturday’s match against England at Twickenham.
Time spent together at training and in matches is an essential ingredient in a team’s growth. Something that this developing New Zealand team desperately requires, and will benefit from.
Despite knocking Ireland out of RWC 2023, New Zealand are also highly motivated by that most basic yet beautiful of emotions – revenge. That series defeat inflicted on them at home by Ireland still painfully reverberates in the Shaky Isles.
This will also be the first match in this very unexpected rivalry – that is deeply unwanted by the New Zealanders – without the genius of Johnny Sexton.
His role in masterminding the on-field phase attack that dismantled the Kiwi’s defensive system in Chicago, Dublin, Dunedin and Wellington cannot be overstated.
Father Time’s calling of the great Jonathan Sexton will be detrimental to Ireland’s performance. That fact is not a criticism of Jack Crowley or Ciaran Frawley but no player can replace an all-time great like Sexton.
None of this means that Ireland cannot win. The men in green will go into the match as slight favourites with their long unbeaten run at home being a key factor. Added to the fact that this is an exceptionally high quality group of Irish players, full of experienced talent, combined with a confident coaching staff who have proved that they can maximise the talents in their team.
Twenty years ago Irish crowds would turn up at the old Lansdowne Road to experience the haka and expect a brave Ireland to inevitably fall to a vastly superior New Zealand team. Inside Irish hearts of that era, winning was not a truly held belief. Those days are now long dead and buried.
Next Friday night either team is more than capable of winning what should be another instalment in an ongoing series of thrilling and titanic struggles between these two excellent teams.
While this scenario does not sit well with the Kiwis, who are mourning the evaporation of their long dominance, the dramatic unpredictability of this, and so many other international matches, is an exceptionally good thing for our game.
Close contests, unpredictable match outcomes, dramatic rivalries, the rise and fall of dynasties. With little old Ireland, coming from the ranks, punching far above its weight division, taking on the former heavyweight champions of the world with the real possibility of winning.
Sounds like the concept for a movie staring Sylvester Stallone.
