Sport, as we know, is fickle, volatile and fast-moving. Success guarantees little and can be short-lived. Nine weeks into the competitive provincial season, Munster’s breakthrough URC triumph last May already seems like a distant memory.
Fresh from that extraordinary URC success, which earned them one of the top four seedings in the Investec Champions Cup and what had seemed like a favourable draw, has not panned out as hoped.
Failure to maximise winning positions in a draw at home with Bayonne was compounded by Sunday’s loss in Exeter, when Henry Slade’s intercept try with the last play of the game was effectively a two-point swing in the table.
In earning an attacking bonus point and denying Munster a losing one, Exeter sit alongside Northampton on nine points with Munster in fifth place on three points - someway short of what they would have targeted - in Pool Three.
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Nor have other results in a particularly unpredictable pool featuring two one-point wins and a draw appeared to have panned out helpfully for Graham Rowntree’s team.
Three-time winners and reigning Challenge Cup champions Toulon, currently riding high behind Racing 92 atop the Top 14, had seemed like the other heavyweights in the pool.
But having held winning positions themselves at home to Exeter and away to Northampton, Toulon sit below Munster on two points. Come kick-off at the Stade Felix Mayol on Saturday January 13th, Northampton and Exeter might well have closed off the top two places by beating Bayonne and Glasgow at home.
Either way a home tie in the round of 16 looks a forlorn hope at this stage for Munster, and they could have done with that both on and off the pitch. Whoever loses that match in the Mayol will likely be bottom of the pool and face a must-win game a week later, when Munster host Northampton, so as to finish in the top four and stay in the competition. Finishing fifth and qualifying for the Challenge Cup round of 16 would be of scant consolation.
Ever the drama kings, Munster sure don’t like doing things the easy way, but these are slightly disconcerting times for the province. First and foremost, they have an horrendous injury list.
They could have done with some of the 13 senior squad players deemed hors de combat last week. Despite their heavy injury toll, Munster have still managed to pick strong, competitive starting XVs, but it’s had a ripple effect down to their match-day squads.
All things being equal, Brian Gleeson is going to be an exceptional player and Ben O’Connor is a very exciting one, but two teenage academy players on the bench tells its own tale, and of their replacements last Sunday only Oli Jager and Conor Murray could be described as proven impact players. They were also the only two brought on before the last dozen minutes.
This rather than any relative lack of fitness has perhaps contributed to Munster falling away in matches of late. Last Sunday in Sandy Park was the sixth consecutive match in which Munster have been outscored in the second half, and the tally in those half dozen games against them is 83-28.
They particularly could have done with Jean Kleyn and/or RG Snyman in the secondrow, on top of which Edwin Edogbo was ruled out as well as Fineen Wycherley, meaning Gavin Coombes was moved to lock and packed down on the tighthead side, in part to stiffen the scrum.
They could also, needless to say, have done with Peter O’Mahony, who has been their rock, inspiration and captain for much of the last decade, and you’d have to wonder if his presence would have helped instil some composure in the last quarter when the game slipped away from Munster.
Of course, O’Mahony and Murray are also coming off their IRFU central contracts at the end of the season, meaning the union are passing that responsibility onto Munster. There remains too a captaincy void until a full-time candidate is anointed to succeed O’Mahony after he stepped down from the role a few weeks ago.
Having lost RG Snyman, the mood among Munster supporters especially hasn’t been helped by news that the World Cup-winning lock is expected to join Leinster. Furthermore, having been out of favour, Joey Carbery is out of contract at the end of the season, and is receiving covetous glance from France and especially Bordeaux Begles. But having had a plethora of outhalves as Jack Crowley and Ben Healy came through the ranks in addition to Carbery and JJ Hanrahan, Munster will be loathe to start next season with only Crowley still there.
Admittedly, whatever Munster’s second half difficulties, they pale by comparison to Connacht. The porousness of their defences is alarming, especially when conceding two tries as they did against Saracens last Saturday through having no fullback or scrumhalf sweeping in the backfield for grubbers into completely unguarded 4G grass. So too is the manner they have fallen away in three heavy defeats against the Bulls and the last two Champions Cup weekends.
In what has been an underwhelming Irish campaign so far, at least Ulster rediscovered their mojo and, with John Cooney in his big night pomp their swagger too, in what was a fairly commanding and cohesive win over Racing 92, sprinkled with some creative tries from close-range penalties.
The only other two Irish wins in eight outings has been Leinster’s highly contrasting victories away to La Rochelle and at home to Sale Sharks. Coming six days apart, it was only human that they had something of a comedown last Saturday in that error-strewn, slow-starting, slow-finishing performance.
Still, with Ryan Baird doing his best Pieter-Steph du Toit impersonation a week after Will Connors did so, Leinster look like they’ll be a fascinating watch this season with Jacques Nienaber aboard.
