Scotland v Ireland, Sunday, Murrayfield, 3pm (Live on RTÉ TV/BBC/RTÉ Radio/BBC Radio)
Once upon a time the Six Nations was synonymous with sepia-tinged photos of mud-coated opposing players embracing warmly after the final whistle.
Yet one of the factors in making this 2023 edition so richly entertaining has been the uncommonly helpful weather. Not so in Edinburgh tomorrow alas, it would appear, for one of this championship’s truly defining games.
This Irish team is thus set to play in true wintry conditions for the first time since last summer’s New Zealand tour. The forecast varies from website to website and from day to day, but it doesn’t look too flash.
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“I’ve been looking at it all week, I’ve been on to a specialist weather fella,” admitted Andy Farrell, sounding just a tad like Joe Schmidt for once.
“It changes all the time. It doesn’t matter whether you talk to a specialist or not, it changes in their eyes as well. So, three o’clock to six o’clock it was snowing yesterday and it could be sleet, maybe turning into rain; it all depends on how cold it is.”
Ireland have prepared for such an eventuality by eschewing the comforts of their indoor pitch at the IRFU HPC this week.
“The coldest day of the year so far was yesterday and we went outside and we trained fully for a good hour and 10 minutes. So, we’re prepared. We trained pretty well yesterday.”
For Irish ears, that’s always good to hear. Farrell rarely gilds the lily about the quality of his squad’s training sessions. With Finn Russell’s laser-like long passes and penchants for crosskicks, Scotland have been playing with more width than any other team in this year’s Six Nations. But conditions are liable to be more akin to the World Cup quarter-final in Japan when Ireland left Russell and co playing catch-up in the rain.
“There’ll be times, if the weather does come in, that they’ll still play like that,” said Farrell.
“You’ve got to earn the right to be able to play that game, haven’t you? The ball tends to slow down a little bit obviously, but I suppose the attacking game, being first off the floor and winning all the collisions, turnover ball and transition; they all come into play even more so in those type of conditions. And the set-piece.”
Ireland have again proved adept at quickly leading from the front. Scotland, by comparison, have trailed at half-time in two of their games and have tended to play in spells, albeit brilliantly. Then again, every match follows its own unique script, and there will come a day when Ireland will have to play catch-up.
There’s a part of Farrell that probably wouldn’t mind that at all. Only Richie Gray of this Scottish team was born when they last won a Triple Crown and a win would also maintain their hopes of a first Six Nations title, having won the last Five Nations in 1999.
They are a settled, highly confident, well-rounded side, witness Gregor Townsend only making two changes.
As expected, Jonny Gray is promoted from the bench to replace the suspended Grant Gilchrist, whose hard edge will be missed, while Jack Dempsey comes into a restructured and beefed up back row for Hamish Watson as the in-form duo of Matt Fagerson and captain James Ritchie shift to 6 and 7 respectively.
Murrayfield, where the crowd are superbly cajoled prior to kick-off, will be particularly partisan for Scotland’s 300th Test at the ground, with Stuart Hogg becoming their latest centurion.
All of which appears likely to inspire rather than weigh heavily on Scottish shoulders, but either way Farrell maintained: “We need to understand it, understand what it means to them and balance up what it means to us. Two sides who are still in with a shout for the championship, that’s the reality.
“Playing away in Murrayfield is always a tough ask anyway, but when all sorts of things are on the line for the home team and even more so for us in our opinion – we’re still in with a chance of going for a Grand Slam, etc.
“It’s the perfect mix. It’s exactly what we want, how we want to be challenged and challenge ourselves. Manage our own expectations, it’s key.”
For his part, Farrell has recalled six serious Test animals in Garry Ringrose, Johnny Sexton, Conor Murray, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong and Peter O’Mahony.
Ringrose’s ability to play cat-and-mouse with Russell while shepherding that 20-metre channel to the touchline is arguably the most important of all.
Having Caelan Doris at 8 and Bundee Aki at 12, and Jamison Gibson-Park back on a strong bench, also looks helpful, and this team have consistently offset individual rustiness through the quality of their training.
Murray’s form amid trying times – mercifully his father Gerry is on the mend following that collision with a lorry on his bike – also merits his starting place, all the more so given the forecast.
“It doesn’t surprise me, first and foremost,” said Farrell of Murray’s temperament. “It takes a lot to shake him. He’s been through a lot over the last few years, but I’ve never seen him break. I’ve never seen his confidence, his will break at all. He’s just kept working hard. I’ve never seen him sulk. I’ve never seen him feel sorry for himself.
“It just shows the character of the man and that’s why he’s playing like he is. That’s how it’s been so far in this campaign for him. He’s still able to perform like he has. It’s a credit to him and his family how he’s handled the whole thing.”
Conceivably, if there is no five-point haul by either England or France in Twickenham today, then Ireland could be in a position to secure a first title since 2018 and 15th overall with a bonus-point win. Not that this will affect their thinking by one iota.
“Well, we’d love to go for five points in every single game so our attitude is the same. We want to keep pushing. We don’t want to just scrape over the line. But, grind out a win, if that’s what it take to get the four points then obviously that’s how we deal with it in the moment.
“But we want to go out there and perform to our best the whole time so of course there’s always an awareness that certain people need to have within our group but, at the same time, our mentality has always been the same, whether it be in the Six Nations, or the autumn series, a warm-up game or whatever. We want to keep piling the pressure on the opposition and that won’t be change.”
Besides, winning this one would be the means to a much bigger end. Thinking back to the soaking wet day in Yokohama, and with conditions liable to be something similar, Ireland again look better equipped to cope.
Scotland
15. Stuart Hogg (Exeter), 14. Kyle Steyn (Glasgow), 13. Huw Jones (Glasgow), 12. Sione Tuipulotu (Glasgow), 11. Duhan van der Merwe (Edinburgh), 10. Finn Russell (Racing 92), 9. Ben White (London Irish), 1. Pierre Schoeman (Edinburgh), 2. George Turner (Glasgow), 3. Zander Fagerson (Glasgow), 4. Richie Gray Glasgow), 5. Jonny Gray (Exeter Chiefs), 6. Matt Fagerson (Glasgow), 7. James Ritchie (Edinburgh, captain), 8. Jack Dempsey (Glasgow).
Replacements: 16. Fraser Brown (Glasgow) 17. Jamie Bhatti (Glasgow) 18. Simon Berghan (Glasgow) 19. Scott Cummings (Glasgow) 20. Hamish Watson (Edinburgh) 21. Ali Price (Glasgow) 22. Blair Kinghorn (Edinburgh) 23. Chris Harris (Gloucester).
Ireland
15: Hugo Keenan (Leinster/UCD) 28 caps 14: Mack Hansen (Connacht/Corinthians) 12 caps, 13: Garry Ringrose (Leinster/UCD) 49 caps, 12: Bundee Aki (Connacht/Galwegians) 44 caps, 11: James Lowe (Leinster) 18 caps, 10: Johnny Sexton (Leinster/St Mary’s College) 111 caps (capt), 9: Conor Murray (Munster/Garryowen) 103 caps, 1: Andrew Porter (Leinster/UCD) 51 caps, 2: Dan Sheehan (Leinster/Lansdowne) 15 caps, 3: Tadhg Furlong (Leinster/Clontarf) 63 caps, 4: Iain Henderson (Ulster/Academy) 71 caps, 5: James Ryan (Leinster/UCD) 51 caps, 6: Peter O’Mahony (Munster/Cork Constitution) 92 caps, 7: Josh van der Flier (Leinster/UCD) 48 caps, 8: Caelan Doris (Leinster/St Mary’s College) 26 caps
Replacements: 16: Ronan Kelleher (Leinster/Lansdowne) 20 caps, 17: Cian Healy (Leinster/Clontarf) 121 caps, 18: Tom O’Toole (Ulster/Ballynahinch) 7 caps, 19: Ryan Baird (Leinster/Dublin University) 9 caps, 20: Jack Conan (Leinster/Old Belvedere) 36 caps, 21: Jamison Gibson Park (Leinster) 23 caps, 22: Ross Byrne (Leinster/UCD) 17 caps, 23: Robbie Henshaw (Leinster/Buccaneers).
Referee: Luke Pearce (England)
Assistant Referees: Wayne Barnes (England), Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Stuart Terheege (England)
Overall head-to-head: Played 139. Scotland 66 wins, Ireland 68 wins, 5 draws.
Last five meetings: (2019, RWC) Ireland 27 Scotland 3 (Yokohama). 2020 (6N) Ireland 19 Scotland 12 (Dublin). (ANC) Ireland 31 Scotland 16 (Dublin). 2021 (6N): Scotland 24 Ireland 27 (Edinburgh). 2022 (6N) Ireland 26 Scotland 3 (Dublin).
Betting (Paddy Power): 5/2 Scotland, 20/1 Draw, 1/3 Ireland. Handicap odds (Scotland +7pts) 10/11 Scotland, 18/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
