This year’s Six Nations is notable for featuring four high-class outhalves in their 30s, who’ve all played Tests for the Lions and have 404 caps between them. But they’ve had sharply contrasting fortunes.
Whereas Finn Russell and Johnny Sexton remain pivotal, talismanic and automatic first-choices for Scotland and Ireland, both Owen Farrell and Dan Biggar have lost their places, with the latter now supposedly injured and ruled out of Wales’ game against Italy in Rome altogether after being dropped to the bench for their loss at home to England a fortnight ago.
As Warren Gatland and Steve Borthwick scratch around in search of their best sides, the treatment of Farrell is particularly curious.
Named as captain for the tournament, Farrell has gone from starting at centre in their opening loss at Twickenham against Scotland to being outhalf in their wins over Italy and Wales, to now being demoted to the bench against France at home.
Meanwhile Marcus Smith has gone from starting outhalf in their first game to the bench in their next two matches and is now reinstated at 10.
Farrell has never sat on the bench in 47 previous Six Nations matches and has not been left out of the starting XV for a frontline England Test against Tier 1 opposition since an autumn international in 2014 against Australia.
As Ellis Genge is the only vice-captain in the starting team, he will lead the side, with Farrell set to assume the captaincy in the endgame, so his role against France could still be very significant.
For sure Farrell’s cause has not been helped by his uncharacteristically wayward goal-kicking, with his return of just seven successful kicks at goal from 15 attempts in this Six Nations equating to 47%.
There’s a theory out there which pigeon-holes Farrell as an inferior playmaker to Smith, and George Ford for that matter, and not as inclined to take the ball to the line. But Warren Gatland has always maintained that Farrell is one of the best players at identifying or creating space on a pitch that he has ever coached.
Farrell has been playing excellent rugby for Saracens this season and the statistics also back all of this up. In this season’s Premiership, only Elliot Daly (eight) has more than Farrell’s seven try assists. Farrell also has the joint highest number of line break assists (11) in the Premiership and has 11 offloads, the fifth highest overall and the highest of any outhalf.
The statistical comparisons between Farrell, Smith and Ford over the last two seasons in Premiership also tend to dispel a myth or two. Where Farrell excels is in his ability to commit defenders to him before releasing the ball to a teammate. His percentage of carries when committing two or more defenders to the ball is 35.6, compared to Smith’s 25.9% and Ford’s 7.6%.
It is also generally presumed that Farrell is better employed within more of a kicking game, as was the case when England beat Italy and Wales. Yet with regards to kicks in play over the last two seasons in the Premiership, Ford’s percentage of kicks in play is 14.3 compared to Smith’s 9.5% and Farrell’s 8.5%.
Ford does have the longest kicking game at 34.2 metres per kick, although that possibly reflects Leicester’s tactics under Borthwick until he took the England job as much as anything, and Farrell (30.6 metres) and Smith (28.9) are not far behind.
Unsurprisingly, Smith is the best running threat of the trio, and averages more metres per carry (4.8) than Ford (4) or Farrell (3.2). Smith is also the most elusive, with a tackle evasion percentage of 37.1 compared to Farrell’s 28.7, which is far from shabby, and Ford’s 27.5%.
This is England’s third different 10-12-13 combination in four games, with a completely different midfield compared to the one which lined up at the start of the Championship.
Given England come to the Aviva next week, how the Smith-Ollie Lawrence-Henry Slade, axis goes against France will be intriguing, as will how the much-debated English outhalf conundrum pans out in a World Cup. For this weekend, Borthwick has decided that the riddle of perming two from three is simply just to pick one of them.
But you wouldn’t write Farrell off just yet.
