The electricity sector is being asked to do much of the heavy lifting when it comes to meeting the Government target of reducing CO2 emissions by 51 per cent of 2018 levels by 2030. “This is primarily because heat and transport are major sources of emissions and the quickest and most cost-effective way of removing carbon from these sectors is to electrify both home heating and transport using mainly green electricity, essentially heat pumps and electric vehicles,” explains EirGrid chief executive Mark Foley.
“People argue about the credibility of the 2030 date, which is of course challenging, but the plan itself is demonstrably robust and deliverable over the long term,” he adds. “There is no better alternative on offer.”
However, meeting the targets will require the electricity system to be transformed to both generate and transmit greater quantities of green electricity to meet increased demand from across the country. And this must be done at the same time as base demand is increasing quite significantly.
“Ireland is a bit of an outlier in Europe in regard to its strong economic growth,” Foley notes. “We also have a very strong digital economy with many of the world’s leading ICT corporations located here. As big data and AI evolve it is vital that Ireland maintains its attractiveness for the sector.”
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EirGrid’s Shaping our Electricity Future strategy is designed to accommodate a 50 per cent growth in electricity demand by 2030. Foley points out that the projected growth is based on extensive consultation with the Economic & Social Research Institute, government departments, independent experts, and others.
“There is good science behind the forecast,” he says. “We have a very good track record when it comes to predictions. Over the past six or seven years our forecasts have been accurate to within 1 per cent.”
The Shaping our Electricity Future strategy provides a blueprint for an island-wide power system where 70 per cent of all annual electricity consumption is based on renewable sources (RES-E). A recently published update to the strategy includes the necessary additional infrastructure required to support 80 per cent RES-E in the longer term.
That will also require a massive increase in renewable generation. “Electricity from renewable sources will come from onshore wind, where Ireland is a world leader, offshore wind which is new to Ireland but where the technology has been proven in the UK and elsewhere and solar PV which has arrived and is growing at a very fast rate in Ireland both at an industrial scale and on commercial and residential properties. This new generation capacity will be delivered, the only debate is how fast given the challenges of the Irish planning system.”
Another aspect of generation relates to backup capacity. “This is critical for system security to cater for those periods where there no wind or solar energy, namely an anticyclonic gloom also referred to as a Dunkelflaute in the sector,” Foley notes. “Ireland needs low carbon, dispatchable gas generation for at least the next decade and beyond and this is explicitly called out in Shaping our Electricity Future. To date, the delivery of new gas generation plant through the Commission for Regulation of Utilities auction system has failed due to its design and old carbon intensive plant will remain on the system for the rest of this decade.”
Battery storage also has a role to play. “Batteries can be charged when we have excess wind. We have already procured short-duration batteries to keep the grid stable as we put lots of renewables onto the system. The trick … is to get long-duration batteries of four to eight hours which can reduce the amount of fossil fuel plant needed for back-up.”
Sitting in the middle, connecting generation with demand, is the electricity grid with its 6,000 km network of wires, much of which originates from Ireland’s rural electrification programme more than 80 years ago.
“Shaping our Electricity Future defines the new grid network development programme, the technologies to help with grid stability including batteries, inertia devices, smart devices, and control room tools, the level of interconnection to other jurisdictions and the full suite of system services which will support a power system at close to 100 per cent renewables,” says Foley. “The €1.6 billion Celtic interconnector to France is under construction and EirGrid expects to have more than €3 billion of other grid projects in construction within the next two years.”
He believes the Government’s policies and associated legislation for the electricity system are the right ones. “And our vision for the power system as set out in Shaping our Electricity Future is the right pathway to deliver on Ireland’s objectives. You have to look at everything holistically. The real benefits come when you connect everything together in the smartest way possible. There is a fantastic opportunity for Ireland to become a world leader in how this is done.”