We should probably stop talking about the potential for one million electric cars on Irish roads by 2030, because it simply isn’t going to happen. That’s not because EVs are not a good thing, nor is it because the average Irish car buyer is particularly EV-phobic, but simply down to the maths.
There are currently in the region of 125,000 electric cars on Irish roads. To hit the one million mark by the end of 2030, a target set by a previous government, we’d have to buy and register 175,000 new EVs every year, including this year.
Total new Irish car sales, of all fuel and engine types, ran to 121,278 last year, of which electric cars accounted for 14.4 per cent. So far this year, things are looking up a little, with electric car sales running 15 per cent ahead of where they were at this time last year, for a total market share of 16.67 per cent. That still translates to only 13,629 EVs registered so far in 2025, which leaves us with a shortfall of 161,371 to make up by December. The maths is both ineluctable and inescapable.
To try to push things along, the Climate Change Advisory Council has proposed major new incentives for electric car purchases, well ahead of the current maximum €5,000 rebate of vehicle registration tax (VRT) and the maximum €3,500 grant from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, with as much as an extra €10,000 taken off the cost of a new EV for lower-income families. Would that actually work, though?
RM Block
It should do. After all, we’ve seen Norway climb to the position of the leading country in Europe for electric car sales – in spite of the havoc wrought on battery range by very cold weather – thanks to massive incentives, tax breaks and other benefits paid for by that country’s oil-fuelled sovereign wealth fund. Equally, in Germany, when EV incentives were sharply withdrawn, pretty much without notice, sales of electric cars collapsed.
However, the picture is a little more murky when it comes to incentives, not least because the prices of electric cars and their petrol, diesel and hybrid brethren are rapidly equalising. True, some of that equality is driven by the incentives but it’s also true that batteries – the most expensive part of any EV – are becoming much cheaper, and that’s a trend which will in all likelihood continue. In fact, the cheapest car currently available in the Irish market is electric; the €14,490 Dacia Spring.
Experts are divided on whether adding more incentives would work. Prof Hannah Daly, of University College Cork, told The Irish Times: “Electrifying the new car market – with full EVs, not hybrids or plug-ins – is one of the most obvious and beneficial ways of cutting emissions and fossil fuel imports, and the Government certainly should consider a range of creative ways to promote EVs.
“The climate council’s proposal to provide a particular incentive for low-income households could play a part of this. The Government is understandably reluctant to continue subsidising EVs, when they are largely cost effective already and tend to be bought by households who can already afford them, but there is a good argument to make EVs more affordable to people on lower incomes, who would otherwise rely on the second-hand car market.
“As for whether the funding would be better spent on public transport or charging – this is not a case of ‘either/or’ – funding public transport and charging infrastructure and making sustainable mobility more affordable are all valuable and necessary. We spend around €6 billion each year importing oil and could be subject to even greater fines for missing EU climate targets. The faster we get off oil, the better.”
However, Prof Brian Caulfield, of Trinity College Dublin, thinks any Government largesse should not be directed towards putting more electric cars on the road: “I’ve long supported a more nuanced approach to electric vehicle grants. This approach should consider a just transition and target grants towards individuals who have no alternative to driving.
“Currently, research indicates that most EVs are sold in urban areas where alternative transportation options are readily available. Such funding could, for example, be used instead to construct light rail systems in Cork and Galway.
“Currently, the Zero Emissions Vehicles Ireland (ZEVI) programme receives approximately €100 million per year to encourage EV sales and support the roll-out of a national charging infrastructure. An exponential increase in funding to support EV uptake would need to be fully costed and appraised. This is especially crucial given that the Government’s own cost-benefit analysis in 2019 showed a negative cost-benefit ratio for supporting electric vehicles.”
