It is rare there is more consensus than division between the Government and Opposition on the implications of a big policy moment.
The domestic political response to the announcement of the deal that would allow the US impose a 15 per cent tariff on exports from the EU was markedly glum on both sides of the house.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin did not try to gloss over it when speaking to the media on Monday. Nobody was in favour of tariffs, he said.
But the State and the EU had to recognise “new realities”. The world has changed since “Liberation Day” on April 1st.
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Sub-optimal as the outcome was, it was better than the alternative, Martin argued. That would have been “ruinous”. Higher tariffs and a prolonged trade war would have wreaked great damage to the Irish economy and jobs.
Earlier IBEC director general Danny McCoy had described the decision by the EU to accept tariffs as a “capitulation”. He later expanded by saying that Ireland was a rich economy and it was the right move. “You can’t be popular when you’re rich ... You’ve got to be responsible.”
What impact will it have? Some Irish exports will be impacted, not least the Irish whiskey industry which finds itself facing higher tariffs than its Scottish competitors.
The other key question for Ireland revolves around the vital pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors. There were some mixed messages coming from US president Donald Trump and EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday, as to their conclusion.
On Monday, the Taoiseach said it was his “clear understanding” that both would be subject to a ceiling of 15 per cent. Like his ministerial colleagues, Paschal Donohoe and Peter Burke, Martin focused on the deal giving “certainty”.
As of now, the tariff proposal is in skeletal form and many of the details need to be negotiated. For the Opposition, however, there are already warning signs. Rose Conway-Walsh, enterprise spokeswoman for Sinn Féin, expressed concern about the differential that will open up between the economies on both sides of the Border. She also argued that support packages will be required to offset losses.
Labour’s enterprise spokesman George Lawlor said a revised summer economic statement was needed as the one published earlier this month was predicated on tariff levels of 10 per cent.
“There’s no doubt it’s going to have serious implications. I think there was a prediction of some 45,000 jobs that would have a cloud hanging over them with a 10 per cent tariff. So with a 15 per cent tariff, that can only be a bad deal for Ireland,” he said.
Again, the implications for the Budget are as yet unknown. Both Martin and Donohoe pointed to positive factors (less internal barriers to competition within the EU and Ireland diversifying into new markets) as countermeasures.
Ministers all said the deal would bring certainty. Edgar Morgenroth, professor of economics at DCU, said the deal did not give certainty. He referred to a deal Mr Trump did with Canada during his first term that he subsequently unpicked.
“Nothing is certain with this guy, except if you give him something, he will come back for more. So the whole strategy of negotiating was just stupid,” he said.
It is also certain that there will be continuing criticism of the EU’s relative weakness. Morgenroth identified a lack of political cohesion between the 27 member states. “In Germany they worry about the car makers. In Ireland, we had the whiskey makers.
“Every country sees itself as a country, and never sees the power of the bloc. It means we are an easy target because you can divide and conquer.”
