Nowhere, it seems, is safe from the reach of Donald Trump.
As the US president continues his mangling of national norms in the United States and more broadly in the world of international affairs and trade, voters in Ireland see where this is all going – and they do not like it.
[ Irish Times poll: Sinn Féin back on top as Fine Gael support slides to 30-year low ]
More than eight in 10 voters (82 per cent) say they are “more worried about the future” because of Trump’s re-election. Wealthier (87 per cent) and older voters (86 per cent) are the most worried. Even the youngest voters (those aged 18-24) look across the Atlantic and see the danger; 81 per cent of them say they are more worried.
This is, perhaps, the one issue that nearly everyone can agree on. Kudos to the 5 per cent of voters who are the optimists who proclaim themselves now “less worried” about the future because of Trump’s election. Fair to say, it’s a minority view.
Although the Irish economy continues to grow strongly and the public finances remain in rude health, voters are displaying signs of pessimism about the future. Asked if they expect the economic situation in 12 months’ time to be better or worse, 61 per cent say they believe things will be worse, with just 7 per cent saying things will be better and 28 per cent saying things will be the same.
The danger for the Government is that all this pessimism becomes a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy, delaying investment decisions and stunting consumer confidence, so, in turn, clobbering consumer spending.
Should the economic hit arrive from Trump’s tariffs, and the public finances see a downturn, how should the Government respond? There is a clear aversion to increasing borrowing, with just over one in eight voters (13 per cent) favouring that route.
Beyond that, however, there is little consensus. About the same proportion of people want the Government to cancel tax cuts (36 per cent) as want it to ease off on the increases in public spending (35 per cent), now such a feature of the annual budget process.
Cancelling tax cuts (in effect letting taxes rise by stealth) and stopping increases in public spending (in effect reducing spending in real terms, as providing services gets more expensive) would feel rather like austerity to a lot of people. And these are dangerous political waters to be contemplating sailing through.
Perhaps in light of all this, voters appear willing to accept a less advantageous trade deal with the United States rather than risk an all-out trade war. Just 28 per cent say that, with trade negotiations between the US and European Union now likely, the EU should “risk a trade war if a good deal is not on offer”. Nearly six in 10 voters (58 per cent) say the EU should “try to negotiate a trade deal at all costs”.
This does not, however, seem likely to be the EU’s approach. The bloc is readying retaliatory tariffs against the US if the negotiations fail or never get off the ground in the first place. That may open up the space for significant opposition among Irish voters to the EU’s approach.
But if the Government, like its counterparts, is increasingly distracted by international affairs, it is on domestic issues that it is more likely to be judged by the voters.
Micheál Martin has repeatedly said his priority in Government is “housing, housing, housing”.
Voters agree with the Taoiseach. Almost half of all voters say housing should be the number one priority for the new Government, almost three times as many as the next most popular choice.
But there the public’s agreement with him ends on the issue. Voters do not think the Government’s housing plan is working. Most (73 per cent) say a new plan is needed, and this approach is favoured by large majorities of its own supporters. Only 7 per cent of people say the current plan is working.
As it happens, discussions are understood to be continuing within Government about the possibility of a “reset” on housing policy, as the realisation grows that nowhere near the 50,000 houses (or more) a year that are needed will be built.
At the time of the last election, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael said they were turning the corner on housing. While acknowledging the problem had not been solved, they said the government was finally getting on top of it by ramping up delivery and making tangible progress. With just 30,000 completions last year, and many people in the construction industry saying it is unlikely to build more than that (and could possibly build less) this year, that’s a much harder case to make now.
Though the Government is only in office three months, the clock is ticking. Housing by its nature has a long lead-in time. Unless changes are made soon, the effects may not be felt in time for the next election.
On housing, time is already running out. The sense is unmistakable in these numbers that the public is running out of patience with the Government on the issue.
