What was your moment of the campaign?
It has to be the encounter in Kanturk between Fine Gael leader Simon Harris and care worker Charlotte Fallon. I am in a very small minority (possibly of one) who thinks Harris wasn’t really that nasty to her. She was, after all, the one telling him he was a bad person. But the importance of these encounters gets inflated in the white heat of a campaign. Other moments – the Michael O’Leary comments on teachers and the last Irish Times/Ipsos B & A opinion poll – were all disastrous for Fine Gael, which says something about the campaign.
What was the biggest surprise of the campaign?
That immigration played such a marginal role. In surveys throughout the year, it ranked at the top or nearly the top of the list of voters’ concerns. Yet it didn’t feature at the centre of the election debate at all. Perhaps that’s because the positions of the big parties have all migrated (so to speak) to a similar place; they are all promising to toughen up the existing rules but not change them fundamentally.
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What is the key constituency you will be watching?
Can I say two? Dún Laoghaire, because it will tell us whether Fine Gael can make gains across the middle-class heartlands and if the Greens can survive to be a substantial player in the next Dáil, and perhaps, in the next government. Fine Gael are out for a second seat here through Barry Ward, while the Greens are struggling to hold Ossian Smyth’s seat. In Tipperary South the contest between Imelda Goldsboro of Fianna Fáil and Martin Browne of Sinn Féin will tell us about Micheál Martin’s chances of making gains – and Mary Lou McDonald’s chances of holding those seats she won in 2020.
What do you think will be the make-up of the next government?
The polls suggest the numbers are not there, or even nearly there, for a Sinn Féin-led coalition of the left, without either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. If the two parties combined are about twice the size of Sinn Féin, then they will form the basis of the next government, whether with one or two partners, and/or the support of Independents. Where things get a bit unpredictable is if Fine Gael has a very bad day and is substantially smaller than Fianna Fáil; does that make government formation harder, and could there be a push in Fine Gael to go into opposition? I don’t think that’s likely, though. Micheál Martin will not want to push Fine Gael into a position where government with Fianna Fáil is unpalatable, because he doesn’t want to have to contemplate a coalition with Sinn Féin. So at this stage, I think the most likely outcome is Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael form the basis of another coalition, but not alone.
– Pat Leahy
What was your moment of the campaign?
It was obviously Harris’s botched exchange with disabilities worker Charlotte Fallon in Kanturk. Others include the kerfuffle on the opening weekend over Michael O’Leary’s remarks about teachers at a campaign launch for Fine Gael’s Peter Burke; and Gerard ‘The Monk’ Hutch rocking up to the city returning officer’s premises on a motorbike to lodge his paperwork to become a candidate.
What was the biggest surprise of the campaign?
Like Pat’s answer, it has to be how immigration was such an apparent non-issue. That’s in contrast with the local and European elections when an handful of anti-immigration activists won council seats and the issue appeared to be front and centre of the political discourse much of the time. The heat has, at least temporarily, been taken out of the issue. In Monday’s Irish Times/Ipsos B & A opinion poll just 7 per cent of voters said it would influence their ballot box decision. I would be flabbergasted if any far-right candidates get over line once the counting is done.
What is the key constituency you will be watching?
Limerick City. Three of the four seats are highly likely to go to incumbents – veteran voter-winner Willie O’Dea of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael junior minister Kieran O’Donnell and Maurice Quinlivan of Sinn Féin. But it is set to be scrap to the death for the last seat. Outgoing Green Party TD Brian Leddin’s seat is vulnerable to a series of competitors who did better than him in June’s mayoral election: Fianna Fáil’s Dee Ryan, Independent Frankie Daly, Sarah Beasley of Aontú, Conor Sheehan of Labour and Elisa O’Donovan of the Social Democrats. Ryan and Sheehan in particular are ones to watch. If either get over the line, it could indicate a good day for their respective parties.
What do you think will be the make-up of the next government?
It is difficult to see anything other than a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition going by the polls and their insistence they will not do a deal with Sinn Féin. Labour’s proposal for a post-election alliance of centre-left parties might be more likely to bear fruit if Fine Gael has a bad day and the Civil War parties need considerable reinforcements to form a coalition. If I had to call it, a more likely outcome is Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour and a perhaps a handful of reliable Independents.
– Cormac McQuinn
What was your moment of the campaign?
The last Irish Times/Ipsos poll of the campaign itself, which landed days after that disastrous interaction involving Harris and Charlotte Fallon in Kanturk, was a huge moment. It showed a total evaporation of Fine Gael’s lead, which the party had been privately celebrating. Although politicians are blue in the face saying that they don’t pay attention to polls, it fundamentally shifted the dynamic of the campaign. It rallied Sinn Féin, emboldened Fianna Fáil and gave the smaller parties more to fight for, as they sensed their role would be ever more important in government formation negotiations if there was to be a deadlock.
What was the biggest surprise of the campaign?
It was the fact that politicians from all parties had so long to prepare for this election (given that they have been talking about it since January) and yet many of them struggled to really understand the mood of the electorate and what voters wanted. When it came to the big issue – housing – Government parties were basically promising more of the same, and majored instead on offering lots of goodies in the manifestos.
What is the key constituency you will be watching?
Dublin Central, but the battle between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in Wicklow, Mayo and Dublin North West will be fascinating. I will be intrigued to see how Sinn Féin do in constituencies such as Carlow-Kilkenny, after their big hitter Kathleen Funchion became an MEP. Dublin Bay South has a fascinating mix of candidates, while Dublin Bay North could be a bellwether.
What do you think will be the make-up of the next government?
At this stage – and there is always space for a final shock – the most likely government is a mix of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and one or more smaller parties. The route for Sinn Féin is trickier on current polling. It’s clear Fine Gael is eyeing up the Labour Party. The Social Democrats say they would drive a hard bargain too.
– Jennifer Bray
What was your moment of the campaign?
It was undoubtedly the interaction between Simon Harris and Charlotte Fallon in Kanturk. It’s not an original answer, but it’s one of the campaign moments not only of the 2024 general election campaign, but of recent elections across the board. It didn’t cause the Fine Gael slump, but it captured it in a way that was immediately clippable and shareable, while Simon Harris’s more tightly manicured and slick (not to mention expensive) social media output fell by the wayside.
What was the biggest surprise of the campaign?
It was Fine Gael still not learning how to land a campaign effectively. It seems chronic at this stage – and again, they were fighting the last war. The party convinced itself that in 2020 it lost out by seeming ungenerous. In this election, despite a clear focus from voters on cost of living, a giveaway budget followed by a muddled campaign laden with promises seemed to fundamentally misjudge where the electorate was at. A late play for economic credibility in choppy waters further confused things. They ended up somewhere between overpromising and Keep the Recovery Going 2.0, which all hinged on the shine not coming off Harris.
What is the key constituency you will be watching?
Dublin South Central. It has no Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael seat currently, with both those parties plus the Social Democrats and Labour targeting it. This is a left-leaning constituency that has lost more affluent areas in the redrawing of the constituencies. That suggests there could be a seat for Right to Change Joan Collins, a sitting TD, or People Before Profit’s Hazel de Nortún, but Sinn Féin’s Aengus Ó Snodaigh has a running mate too. The Greens have a chance of holding Patrick Costello’s seat, while it’s a Petri dish for the immigration politics vote too with anti-immigrant activist Phil Sutcliffe in the field, although his support of mixed martial arts fighter Conor McGregor might hurt him following the recent civil rape case ruling against McGregor. What makes this constituency so fascinating is it’s just so hard to call.
What do you think will be the make-up of the next government?
The most likely outcome is a government based on a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition, but that’s a lot less likely than it was even a week ago. If they each 80 seats combined (short of the 88 seats needed for a majority in the next Dáil), the further north of that they go (aided if they transfer to each other), the easier that task gets. But if that gap gets too big for a rotating taoiseach arrangement, that brings its own problems. If this route isn’t available, there are a whole host of outcomes strewn with obstacles, but a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin government, a minority government, confidence and supply or – whisper it quietly – even another election will then have to be assessed.
– Jack Horgan-Jones
What was your moment of the campaign?
This campaign did not really have a big moment. The Kanturk kerfuffle did stand out and it did put Fine Gael on the back foot. But was it a momentum shifter? The decline in Fine Gael support was well under way before that and it might have accelerated it, or emphasised it, a little.
What was the biggest surprise of the campaign?
It is how fickle everything can be, even in a short period of time. Five months ago immigration dominated the local and European elections but it has been hardly more than a background issue this time.
What is the key constituency you will be watching?
Galway East. It will tell a lot about how the three big parties are performing outside Dublin. The constituency has gained a seat and is now a four-seater. All three parties have targeted that extra seat. Sinn Féin’s Louis O’Hara almost won here in 2020 and might sneak the seat this time. Fine Gael is running three strong candidates this time and expects to win two. Expectation is running too in Fianna Fáil where minister of State Anne Rabbitte has a strong running mate, Albert Dolan, the 25-year old chair of Galway County Council. It’s a bellwether constituency for sure.
What do you think will be the make-up of the next government?
A trickle of sweat appears on my brow when I am asked this question. For Sinn Féin to have a very good day it needs to put clear water between itself and, on the other side, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. It is now abundantly clear they will transfer heavily to each other and that will give them an advantage when it comes to determining the last seats in some constituencies. Sinn Féin’s call on supporters to transfer to People Before Profit and the Social Democrats is the party taking a two-way bet that those two parties will, in turn, return the favour and transfer to Sinn Féin, especially in Dublin. My sense is that Fianna Fáil could end up with about 50 seats, Sinn Féin with about 40, and Fine Gael a few seats shy of the 40-seat mark but my margin of error is plus or minus 10 seats! Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael look the most likely government partners out of this election, but relying on the support of others.
– Harry McGee
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