Politics

Analysis: Coalition taking different tack on defence, but policy may not stand test of time

Spending plan’s caveat: Little holding next government or one after that adhering to implementation

The Government is listening to some proposals for an overhaul of the State's military. File photograph: The Irish Times
The Government is listening to some proposals for an overhaul of the State's military. File photograph: The Irish Times
Conor Gallagher's picture
Conor Gallagher
Wed Jul 13 2022 - 18:00

“They are not capable, as at present constituted, of taking any really effective part in the defence of the country against a modern army, navy or air force.”

That was the verdict of the Council of Defence on Irish military capabilities in 1925. To address these shortcomings, the council recommended the government either take defence seriously or leave it entirely to Britain.

The government decided instead to do nothing. The situation continued until 1936 when Col Dan Bryan wrote another document outlining how the State was “not relatively but absolutely disarmed” and could only fight a war against a reasonably powerful state for a very short time.

Being neutral involved onerous military obligations, Bryan said. A failure to defend this neutrality might give Britain the excuse it needed to invade during the next European war. Again the government did nothing. Only when war arrived three years later did it begin frantically trying to find men and equipment.

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The most recent assessment of Irish defence capabilities, delivered in February, is remarkably similar to those of 1925 and 1936. According to the report of the Commission on the Defence Forces, the Army is unable to conduct “a meaningful defence of the State against a sustained act of aggression from a conventional military force”.

Like the Council of Defence 97 years earlier, it recommended a drastic overhaul of the military. The difference this time is that the Government has listened to the recommendations, or at least some of them.

Ministers announced plans on Wednesday to increase defence spending to €1.5 billion by 2028 (or €1.9 billion when inflation is taken into account). If this happens, it will be the largest programme of military investment in State history.

Recent events seem to have driven home to Government that Ireland can no longer rely on its geographic position to protect it from global threats.

While the commission was doing its work last year, the HSE suffered a devastating cyberattack and Irish diplomats and soldiers had to rely on other countries’ aircraft to evacuate citizens from Kabul after it fell to the Taliban.

Power politics

The flights of Russian bombers up and down the west coast highlighted the State’s lack of military radar, while the invasion of Ukraine showed the era of might is right power politics has returned in earnest.

Many of these developments are reflected in the new defence plans. For example, the State will get a long-range aircraft, a new joint cyber command and primary radar system to monitor the skies.

Not everyone is happy. Officers are dismayed that they are not included in planned increases to military allowances, while left leaning parties are angry that extra money is being spent on defence during a housing crisis.

Some military experts warn the plan is not ambitious enough; proposals to return the Naval Service to a nine-ship fleet are not expected to be completed before the early 2030s.

The problem is defence procurement is a slow process. While some measures can be fast-tracked, it will take time to recruit the proposed 6,000 extra permanent and reserve troops and to procure equipment on the international market at a time when many other countries are also seeking to beef up their militaries.

This leaves the plan open to another problem: there is little holding the next government, or the one after that, to adhere to its implementation.