Enda Kenny’s long-stated ambition is to be the first Fine Gael taoiseach in the history of the State to win two elections in a row. Already he has served longer in the taoiseach’s office than Albert Reynolds, John Bruton or Brian Cowen but winning a second consecutive term will be the real test of his political ability.
It is something even his most illustrious predecessor as party leader, Garret FitzGerald, never achieved.
When he addresses the Fine Gael faithful at the party’s national conference in Castlebar tonight, Kenny will have a success story to tell about the economic recovery and his Government’s role in it.
However, he will need to get beyond the nuts and bolts of the economic indicators and convey to the wider television audience the human benefits of the recovery story if his party is to recover some of the support lost over the past year.
At times over the past 12 months, as his Coalition was beset by one self-inflicted wound after another, it looked as if Kenny’s hopes of retaining office in the forthcoming election were little more than a pipe dream.
Now with the economic recovery gathering momentum TDs in both Government parties have grounds for believing that a recovery in their own fortunes may not be far behind, but there is no certainty about it. One of the paradoxes of 2014 was that anger with the Government appeared to increase as the recovery began to manifest itself and a surge in support for Sinn Féin and Independents developed.
Since the beginning of this year the Coalition has stopped making so many unforced errors. The level of public anger appears to have abated, Government TDs know, but it could flare up again without warning.
Minimum
Kenny’s strength as a taoiseach has come from his ability to operate the nuts and bolts of government. He has run his Coalition in a spirit of co-operation that has kept the inevitable inter-party tensions to a minimum.
His problem is that in an era when politics has become a dirty word the political skill required to run an efficient administration and build the recovery step by step is not something that necessarily attracts wide acclaim.
The Coalition built the Irish recovery by sticking with the basic terms of the EU-IMF bailout negotiated by its predecessor while getting an easing of those terms as opportunities for improving the deal presented themselves.
That approach contrasts starkly with the swashbuckling parade around Europe by the newly elected leaders of the Syriza government in Greece lecturing EU colleagues about how unfairly their country had been treated.
The coming months will show which was the more effective way of getting a better deal for their people. That may give voters in Ireland attracted by the charms of the Syriza supporters like Sinn Féin, Paul Murphy and Shane Ross some pause for thought. With the election most likely to take place between November and February 2016 there is also time for more of the fruits of recovery to be delivered to people in a way they can appreciate.
Another budget with more of the same in terms of the tax cuts delivered this year has been promised for the autumn and the Coalition is also planning a spring statement to present a vision of where it wants to bring the country after the election.
The clear strategy is to keep the focus of political debate on the economy. The message being delivered this weekend in Castlebar will be hammered home again and again in the coming months.
In response the Opposition is trying to switch the focus back to issues like the Fennelly investigation into the Garda and the Taoiseach’s role in the departure of the previous Garda Commissioner Martin Callinan in an effort to recreate the political instability of last year.
While the best laid plans of Government and Opposition can always be derailed by events it is hard to see how the economy will not be the central issue in determining how the next election turns out.
The decision by Fine Gael to hold its conference in the Taoiseach’s home patch in Castlebar shows just how tightly fought every seat is going to be and nobody can take anything for granted.
In Mayo at the last election Fine Gael won four out of five seats. Next time around the constituency has been reduced to a four-seater and there is simply no way the party can win all four.
No guarantee
The odds are that Fine Gael will take two seats in Mayo and there is no guarantee Kenny will top the poll. There are even some suggestions that he could struggle to be elected. The number of seats in the next Dáil is being cut from the current 166 to 158 and that has created a level of uncertainty in all of the parties about the outcome in some key constituencies.
Kenny is staking everything on a return of a Fine Gael/Labour administration and has ruled out coalition with Fianna Fáil or Sinn Féin. Ultimately the numbers in the next Dáil will dictate what kind of government is put together but it would be foolish to dismiss the prospects of the current Coalition holding on to office.
From the time he became Fine Gael leader almost 13 years ago, Kenny’s political opponents, and much of the media, have consistently underestimated his political ability. He may surprise them again.
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