Given that the vast majority of important decisions for Ireland’s future will continue to be made in Government Buildings, Leinster House, the White House, Capitol Hill, and the Berlaymont in Brussels (in no particular and quite changeable order) for the next four years, rather than in Áras an Uachtaráin, the outcome of last Friday’s election should be viewed in perspective.
Those who see the outcome as a shift or a lurch to the left in voter sentiment are, I think, mistaken.
I would see the result more in terms of what it was – an extraordinary implosion of the credibility and judgment of the leadership of centre - right parties who currently hold office in electoral politics.
When you consider the last three presidencies – those of Mary Robinson, Mary McAleese and Michael D Higgins – it seems that voters choose candidates who are intelligent, articulate, presentable, authentic, empathetic, experienced and inclusive, rather than located on any particular spot on an imaginary left-right spectrum. How else was Catherine Connolly selected as Leas-Ceann Comhairle of Dáil Éireann in a secret ballot of largely non-left TDs?
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Indeed, the very word “left” was entirely absent from posters, leaflets, or advocacy in the election.
Ireland has for too long endured the phenomenon of KTOLO politics – Keep The Other Lot Out.
It was the driving force in post-Civil War politics that tragically dominated our landscape for sixty years of our independence. Electoral realities have pushed Fianna Fáil (FF) and Fine Gael (FG) into sharing political office since 2016 – first by confidence and supply and then by overt coalition supported consecutively by Greens and Independents.
This, the third of such arrangements, has an apparently secure Dáil majority and a projected longevity of four more years. The problem is that the FF/FG alliance appears to have lost drive and ambition. It is driven most obviously by the KTOLO thinking.
Jostling among themselves for petty political advantage or opinion poll pre-eminence does nothing to address the real problems that Ireland faces and will not face up to. Nobody sees or really cares about the subjective differences between FF and FG on budgetary matters.
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Is there a whisker of difference any more between them on EU policy? Has either of them made a fist of dealing with the housing crisis? Is either a more pronounced law-and-order party than the other? Does either of them have a noticeably different approach to migration policy? Is either more or less ethical than the other?
Apart from long dead political differentiation, are they any more distinguishable in voters’ minds from different brands of petrol at filling stations?
Much more important and relevant is whether electoral brand loyalties they separately command outweigh the sense of complacency and declining focus and ambition which they together convey in Government.
Are we condemned to four years of KTOLO drift? Would removal of Micheál Martin and/or Simon Harris refresh, refocus, and reinvigorate their partnership? Or would the public see that as avoiding the deeper issues that we are already failing to address?
Meanwhile, it is idle to ignore the very real possibility that a political coalition will form to exploit public dissatisfaction with KTOLO politics and drift. Watching social media commentary – mostly anonymous but often organised – in recent times, it has become obvious that a loose dog-whistle coalition is emerging of a variety of disparate attitudes and movements, which aspires to challenge the political establishment.
Components include virulent opponents of all forms of migration; race replacement activists; overt and covert pro-Trump activists; pro-life and religious hard-line conservatives; opponents of the EU; sympathisers with Nigel Farage and Tommy Robinson; frustrated would-be homeowners; “spoil-the vote” proponents of election theft theory; and many politically disillusioned and self-professed “politically homeless” citizens. They combine the politics of atavism and anger.
That real, but currently amorphous movement, is and has been earnestly looking for a leadership figure to give it the momentum of Farage’s Reform UK movement.
Unlike the UK, our electoral system could reward such a movement with seats and a role in Government without spectacular poll support such as that enjoyed by Farage.
Before KTOLO politicians in FF/FG become fixated with heading off a potential popular front-style left coalition spanning People Before Profit, Socialist Party, Social Democrats, Labour and Sinn Féin, they should address what may well emerge on their other flank – not by competing with it but by outmanoeuvring it.
That involves radical and wholly new policies at national level in mobilising resources and laws to build and provide homes and infrastructure – tackling issues including planning delay, judicial review, ending paralysis centred on the legal monsters of the planning commission and the planning regulator’s office, reforming compulsory purchase law, expediting statutory provision of major infrastructure, allowing one-off housing in rural Ireland and many other steps.
It also involves related action – including wholly different approaches by our government at EU and at national level – to migration posing as asylum seeking which is costing us billions and unravelling our social cohesion.
