This day next week, world leaders will gather in the city of Belem on the banks of the Amazon to start the Cop30 climate negotiations. It will take place under circumstances unlike any other previous Cop, where for the first time a big country seems intent on wrecking the consensus around what needs to be done.
The week before last, the US administration was able to block a big initiative at the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) which was designed to support the switch to clean fuels for ships on the high seas. One IMO veteran described their tactics: “These people, they’re behaving like gangsters. The US delegates are pulling rude faces when others are speaking, challenging the rule of the chairman, accusing the IMO secretariat of being biased. I’ve never heard anything like it at an IMO meeting.”
Last Wednesday the US and Qatar wrote a letter to the European Union saying its trade, investment and energy supplies will be harmed unless the bloc walks back on tough new climate and human rights rules. In their own home, any support or even reference to climate change is being expunged from every single American public institution. It’s a full-frontal assault, which will not stop until someone holds the line and says ‘you cannot have your way’.
No one knows exactly how the US will engage at Cop30, but only two outcomes seem possible. Either the rest of the world decides to confront the approach and show we are moving on with the agenda – or else they continue to try to placate the Trump administration, hoping to put off any confrontation till another day.
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That second approach would not only be a disaster for our climate but also a historic diplomatic mistake. There will be no appeasing Trump, with no end to such assaults. We would face the same dilemma again. We cannot afford to put things on hold for months, let alone years, waiting – perhaps in vain – for a different US administration.
As it happens there will be an event on the first day of Cop which could be the moment when the leaders might give a clear signal they are holding the line. They will be asked to sign a high-level declaration committing to take action on the release of methane into the atmosphere.
It is a short-lived “super pollutant” greenhouse gas that is having a disproportionate and immediate impact on increasing global temperatures. Reducing these emissions is the best way of getting back on track, to help us stay within safer climate limits. Some people are calling it an “emergency brake” because it is one of the few ways we can turn things around quickly.
Methane is released from a variety of sources, including landfill sites and agriculture, but the focus in Belem is likely to be on these emissions from the fossil fuel sector. The biggest opportunity is in the gas industry, where they could change their ways to ensure their product is no longer either vented directly into the atmosphere, flared off at production wells or lost from leaky pipelines. We know where that is happening thanks to new international satellite detection systems. We also know this is the most economic climate solution going, often bringing a real saving rather than a cost.
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The leaders will be asked to act on the commitments they’ve already given at previous Cops. It’s time for the oil and gas companies, as well as national governments, to live up to those existing pledges. This action has to be based on agreeing common standards for measuring and reporting on what is happening, and then working in trade partnerships between both consuming and producing countries to favour gas imports that meet higher climate standards.
Even the very mention of such trade arrangements is likely to be a red rag to Trump, whose transactional strategy is all about selling as much US liquefied natural gas (LNG) as possible, no matter how polluting the source.
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It is going to be difficult to get the broad coalition that is needed for this methane declaration. The Brazilian officials who hold the Cop presidency are experienced and well regarded, but they are going to have to pull out all the stops to get other countries on board.
Everything has to be done at the last minute, because we live in such chaotic times. China seems reluctant to fill the leadership gap the Americans have left open and the European Union has been strangely hesitant, despite having methane import standards already in place. The UK could also play a vital role.
Even if we get it right on the first day, it would still leave very difficult negotiations on other aspects of the Cop action plan, including how we raise climate adaptation finance for developing countries. However, a strong agreement on methane would be a sign that the rest of the world has not given up and is standing up to the bully.
