In a sign of a more progressive kind of politics – or perhaps not – Japan’s long-time governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) last week elected a woman, Sanae Takaichi, to lead party and country as its next prime minister.
This was a first for the country and a surprise in a state that ranks 118th on the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Index.
Takaichi (64) is a controversial, brash, well-known former TV host, ex-minister and once drummer in a heavy metal band (she still practises on her kit at home).
She is also an admirer of Margaret Thatcher.
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Although she spoke during her leadership campaign of “Nordic” levels of female cabinet appointments – there are just two in the outgoing cabinet, so this would be a bit of a shock to the male-dominated LDP – she is not a known advocate of women’s rights or a liberal.
She has opposed legislation to allow women to succeed to the imperial throne, opposed same-sex marriage and the idea of changing ancient laws requiring married couples to share a surname, claiming the change could encourage divorce or extramarital affairs.
Her election campaign hardly touched on gender or family issues except her support for tax relief for babysitter fees.
But while the LDP’s shift to the right and to a more hawkish international stance may play well with US president Donald Trump, who visits next month, there is no guarantee the party can muster enough votes to continue to govern even as a minority administration.
[ Japan’s next prime minister: an Iron Lady - and the myth that helped her winOpens in new window ]
Takaichi‘s first challenge will be to rebuild an alternative to the parliamentary alliance that has kept the minority LDP-led government in power and which collapsed on Friday, days after her appointment.
Komeito, a centrist party backed by the lay Buddhist organisation Soka Gakkai, has long been an LDP prop. But it broke from the government over Takaichi’s refusal to strengthen regulation of the murky party political funding issues that cost the LDP electorally, and contributed to the resignation of predecessor Shigeru Ishiba. Komeito was also discomforted by what many saw as an LDP lurch towards militarism.
A traditionalist and a “Japan First” nationalist, Takaichi was propelled to the top of her party last week by its most conservative elements. She belongs, Tokyo Temple University professor Jeff Kingston notes, to the “hardline” faction of the LDP, which believes that “the reason the LDP support has imploded is because it lost touch with its right-wing DNA”.
“My goal is to become the Iron Lady,” she told a group of schoolchildren.
Komeito also took Takaichi to task over her tough language on foreigners, immigration and visits to the Yasakuni Shrine – seen by countries occupied by Japan during the second World War as a symbol of its past militarism.
She has sought to downplay Japan’s wartime record, and has indicated a willingness to increase military spending and to amend Japan’s constitutional bar on offensive capabilities for its “Self-Defence Forces”.
A protege of late PM Shinzo Abe, she has pledged to revive his distinctly un-Thatcherite “Abenomics” economic vision of high public spending and cheap borrowing, although she is backing opposition calls for cash handouts and cheap credit. Her most pressing challenge, economic observers say, will be to soften the impact on consumers of higher prices and convince them current modest inflation is not linked to lower living standards.
To come anywhere near a parliamentary majority (240 seats in the more powerful lower house) without Komeito, Takaichi’s LDP (196 seats) will be looking for support from other parties such as the centre-right Innovation Party (JIP 35 seats) whose main demand is to make Osaka the deputy capital of the country. Or there is the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP 27 seats), which is looking for tax concessions and to abolish tax on petrol. The result of an alliance with one or both is likely to be an unpopular and potentially very short-lived government.
Meanwhile, the main opposition party, Constitutional Democrats (CDP 148 seats), is manoeuvring to form an alternative government, but an alternative candidate would mean a degree of co-operation by the four largest opposition parties that political analysts view as implausible.
Part of Takaichi’s success is undoubtedly her populist stance against immigration – in a much-debunked, Trump-like campaign ploy, she berated foreign tourists for kicking deer in her Nara constituency. But the issue could test her pragmatism – Takaichi knows that large-scale immigration will, for some years to come, represent Japan’s best hope of dealing with the ageing crisis that has led to acute, problematic labour shortages.
Professions across the board, from accountants to bus drivers, are drying up. The defence forces can’t recruit. Carpenters, vital in a country where a great deal of construction uses wood, have seen their numbers more than halved since 2020, while 43 per cent of those still working are over 65.
Perhaps, observers suggest, her anti-immigrant credentials may make a U-turn on the issue more palatable.
