Whatever you do, don’t call it “downsizing”. This seemingly harmless word is now part of the generational culture wars. Its very mention has listeners to radio shows picking up their phones and newspaper letter writers grabbing their iPads. It has, somehow, taken on resonance of people being “forced” out of their homes and marched off to a grim bungalow miles away or, worse, whisper it quietly, an apartment. So better to use “right sizing”, or even “age-friendly housing,” though even here it’s best to tread carefully.
The proposed setting up of a group of departmental officials to look at this issue might even come up with a few ideas. But it is part of a pattern of “quick fixes” being floated out by a Government grasping for short-term solutions to a long-term problem.
These follow two broad directions. One is the search for quick-wins – and so as well as helping older people who want to move to smaller homes (see how I avoided the “d” word there), we have had talk of “cracking down” on short-term rentals and easing planning rules on cabins in back gardens. Also run up the flagpole has been an end to the current rental cap regime, an old favourite from the Celtic Tiger playbook – tax breaks for builders – and the extension of the Help-To Buy scheme
The second group of ideas is the predictable institutional shuffle. This appeals to politicians as it gives the impression of doing something quickly. A new implementation group in the Department of Public Spending will try to line up energy, water supply and so on, (though there is gossip of a power struggle about how it operate).
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[ Number of people in homelessness reaches new record high of 15,418Opens in new window ]
Meanwhile, a “housing tsar” – likely to be Brendan McDonagh from the National Asset Management Agency – will head a new strategic unit in the Department of Housing. How close this will be to the Housing Commission’s call for a powerful group with executive powers remains to be seen. A problem with tackling the housing crisis is that politicians, both national and local, don’t want to upset the comfortable classes too much – and a body with executive powers might do just that. Part of tackling the housing crisis will, after all, involve decisions that will have those already-housed up in arms.
And it will involve moving faster. If housing really was being treated as a crisis, for example, the 77-hectare Dublin Industrial Estate to north of the city centre would already have been under development, rather than fresh plans being sent out for more consultation.
As we await this kind of building at scale, there is nothing wrong with looking for fast progress in other areas where possible. But the problem is that seeking quick wins in one area risks worsening pressures elsewhere.
There are, indeed, things that can be done to help older people move from big family homes. The idea of loosening planning rules for so-called “granny flat ” extensions to existing homes is worth looking at. The wider availability of bridging finance – to allow older people to buy a new place before they sell their existing one – is an obvious step, though this is a question for the banks rather than Government directly. At the moment only one institution, ICS, offers this option. Without a bridging loan, those trading down face uncertainty and the risk of being thrown into the hugely over-priced and under- supplied market for short-term rentals.
But this eventually runs into the same problem as most of the other quick-fixes – the chronic lack of supply in all areas of the market. The latest figures suggest that - on current trends – there might be 30,000 completions again this year, way below what is needed.
Older people selling up to move to a smaller home would increase supply of bigger family homes, which is attractive to trader-uppers. But the housing market has, for some years, operated as something approaching a zero-sum game. And while supply of bigger homes would rise, the knock-on would worsen the scramble in the smaller new-home market – the likely A-rated target of those trading down. Here, first-time buyers are already competing for limited stock with local authorities and housing bodies buying properties for social housing.
A better-functioning secondhand market would help first-time buyers, too. And with two thirds of the population living in houses which are bigger than they need – rising to nearly 9 out of 10 of those over 65- there are some net gains here in using available space better.
But unless the trader-down can find somewhere to buy – and most will want to stay in their own area – these will be very hard to unlock. And with many smaller homes being built on the periphery of big cities, or in Dublin’s case, in the commuter belt of Meath, Wicklow and Kildare – to fit in with the €500,000 Help-to-Buy scheme limit – the downsizing options for people within their own communities tend to be limited.
It is all about giving people choices – of course - and there are many wider issues here, too, about supporting people as they get older. But in terms of finding them more appropriate places to live it comes back in the end, as it always does in the housing market, to the fundamental lack of supply. And to the question of the acceptability to Irish people of apartment living, a big issue in the wider quest to have more compact housing.
While the Government will keep pushing up the quick fix ideas, it is in the €6 billion investment budget for housing this year, the promises to speed up water and energy connections and the intention to reform planning where the real action is, in terms of turning the levers on supply.
There must be real worry at Government level now that, despite the billions being spent on a range of “schemes” to incentivise construction, supply remains stuck and no one is sure how many housing commencement notices will turn into actual new homes. And also worry that the new planning act will take a couple of years to implement in full and even then will leave many key calls to made in the legal system, rather than by planners.
Now, in its rush to throw out possible short-term fixes, the Government may have shot itself in the foot by floating out the idea of new tax breaks, with some builders now sitting on their hands to see if these appear. We can only hope that somewhere in the new departmental structures there is real thinking going on about the vital, longer-term issues. And a real determination to make progress. This will not be solved by throwing some tax breaks out to developers and hoping for the best.
