The absurdly inflated row over Dáil speaking rights has put the iron in Taoiseach Micheál Martin’s soul to the surprise of friend and foe alike. His decision to stick by plans to reform speaking time arrangements demonstrated that he was not prepared to back down in the face of the bully-boy tactics deployed by the Opposition.
The original plan to designate Government-supporting Independent TDs as members of the Opposition for speaking purposes was too cute by half, but there is a legitimate case to be made for all Government TDs having greater access to speaking time.
Those issues are likely to come thick and fast in the coming months. On top of the long overdue requirement to make inroads into the big infrastructural challenges we have to contend with, he will have to confront the necessity of engaging with the emerging consensus on the need for a new approach to EU defence.
The decision by Tánaiste and Minister for Defence Simon Harris to abolish the absurd triple lock and begin the process of beefing up the country’s Defence Forces is a sign that the Government has finally decided to face down those who shout about neutrality. Some of them do it as a cover for their rejection of the democratic norms that underpin the EU.
Micheál Martin has finally shown his backbone. He’s going to need it
Ireland’s neutrality is widely regarded as absurd and complacent
Legal culture that underpins frivolous objections has to be reined in or the country will stagnate
Scenes of chaos and bullying in Dáil will have done nothing for the reputation of politicians
An even greater level of resolve will be required from the Taoiseach and his Ministers if the trade war being threatened by Donald Trump materialises and the economy suffers a serious setback.
Now that the US has effectively allied itself with Russia, the EU and Ireland face fundamental choices about how our values and interests can be protected. The European Council meeting in Brussels which continues today may provide a roadmap for the future with plans for a large increase in defence spending.
The Government will have to decide whether we are prepared to engage in closer co-operation with the core EU states as they band together to resist the US and Russia, or whether we will fall by the wayside defending outdated veto powers alongside Hungary and Slovakia.
On Wednesday night president Emmanuel Macron of France told his people that Europe had to be ready to survive without US support. “By 2030 Russia plans to increase its army to have 300,000 additional soldiers, 3,000 extra jet fighters – who can believe that in this context Russia will stop at Ukraine? Russia has become and will remain a threat to France and Europe...to remain a spectator would be madness.”
He added that unprecedented decisions needed to be taken in Brussels today.
An issue the Taoiseach does need to be ready for on his visit to the White House is Ireland’s enormous trade surplus with the US. Per head of population it is far bigger than that of any other European country, so it will be no surprise if Trump raises it.
Still, whatever gripe Trump might have about the balance of trade with Ireland the fact that we are in the EU means that this country cannot be singled out for special treatment. We will be subject to the same tariffs as the rest of the EU if that is the road the president decides to go down.
These tariffs will certainly be harmful, but they may not amount to the catastrophe some are predicting. While tariffs on the big US tech and pharmaceutical companies will hurt export earnings and corporation tax receipts, the notion that these companies will abandon Ireland en masse as a result is far-fetched.
The main reason the US companies are here is to gain access to the 450 million consumers in the European Single Market. The low Irish tax rate of 15 per cent is a bonus but unfettered access to the richest market in the world is a primary goal which will remain even if exporting to the US becomes more difficult.
The EU also has its own trade bazooka to fire in the event of hostilities. The Trade Department at the European Commission, led by Sabine Weyand, who masterminded the EU’s negotiations on Brexit, has prepared a detailed strategy to be deployed against the US in any trade war. The impact of that on American consumers should not be underestimated.
