The general election distilled significant power into the hands of a few Independent TDs. There are about seven at the time of writing likely to take up the responsibility of supporting the new government and ensuring its survival, though that may change. Only a handful of other TDs will exceed them in importance: the party leaders in government by dint of their positions, and a few ministers with capacity to fulfil the potential of their office. But compared with many ministers and nearly all others, these Independents will be more important.
The gathering of eight TDs – Seán Canney, Verona Murphy, Michael Lowry, Noel Grealish, Marian Harkin, Kevin “Boxer” Moran, Barry Heneghan and Gillian Toole – into a technical group is the basis for the formation of the next government. It is statistically unlikely that all eight will continue to the end of negotiations. A critical issue for some, but not for others, will be the opportunity to hold office.
Labour, Fianna Fáil’s preferred partner, is divided internally about going into government, but the party is mostly against it. The Social Democrats are sceptical. Getting either to act decisively or both to act cohesively is unlikely. That reality brings focus, and the balance of power, back to the Independents.
With 86 seats, and assuming the casting vote of the ceann comhairle, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have a bare majority. It is inadequate to run a government, however, which needs a ballast of several more. The Independents who are indicating a willingness are compatible with a government mandate based on some form of the status quo. That calculation is based on the vote of the two larger parties in government, and the mandate of like-minded Independents. Voters conspicuously failed to respond to the alternatives on offer.
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Political fragmentation makes the art of congealing that broad mandate into a working majority difficult but not impossible. The first issue that faces the Dáil when it meets on Wednesday December 18th is the election of a ceann comhairle. Fianna Fáil’s Seán Ó Fearghail, who is well regarded and has served two terms, is offering to serve again, but not for a full term. That complicates matters for the prospective government who tactically would prefer to neutralise an Opposition vote by putting a non-Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael TD into the chair.
Government formation is an art form where majorities are measured with teaspoons, not shovels. Ó Fearghail’s candidacy put Micheál Martin in a bind, and one that is complicated by the secret ballot by which TDs indicate their preference for a candidate to be ceann comhairle. The successful TD’s name is then put to the Dáil in an open vote. The secret ballot is provided for in procedure and not legislation, so it could be changed. Martin’s interest is not a controlling one.
From the arrangement for that first vote come deals that settle the rest. Of the eight TDs in the new technical group, the one who will be hardest to persuade without a Cabinet seat is Wexford’s Verona Murphy. The post of ceann comhairle, were she to be interested, would forestall that issue. But the issue is Ó Fearghail and whether Murphy would survive the winnowing of a secret ballot among her Dáil colleagues.
[ Who are the Independent TDs and what price their support in a coalition?Opens in new window ]
A multitude of similar threads are what make the ropes that bind political alliances. If those details are already occupying minds, they are also premature. These Independents, for whom Michael Lowry – a man who knows the difference between office and power – is the first point of contact, won’t rush into the embrace of the two larger parties until they put their own house in order.
Will the office of taoiseach rotate, for what period, and with what share of Cabinet seats are among the issues Independents want clarity on. They won’t deal with a much larger dual entity whose own internal arrangements are not agreed. The pressure is on Martin and Simon Harris to act. Harris, with perhaps a residue of what was once new energy, appears eager, while Martin is more cautious.
The reality is that there are tricky issues, but none that cannot be decided on quickly. Policy may be paramount, but having been in coalition or external association since 2016, there are no substantive differences. The priorities of the Independents on housing, health, mental health and disability overlap with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. What will count is the prioritisation of these issues – and that will be especially important for areas such as disability and mental health.
The opportunity to be ministers will close the deal for Independents. Whether one or other Independent would be a Cabinet minister is connected by a dotted line to the office of ceann comhairle. The great house of Healy-Rae is not in the ring, nor the example of their late father Jackie emulated. He was a magnificently agile sole trader. Now they are a multi-seat, countywide movement, and the internal dynamics and political calculations are different.
Relatively few and disparate in origin, those independent TDs will hold the balance of power. Over the next five years, by dint of their necessity, and such capacity to influence as they can muster, they will be disproportionately important in the administration of our affairs. That’s a definition of a winner.