1. Dealing with climate change
This week, the Climate Change Advisory Council issued its annual review, warning the Government that the rate of progress in cutting carbon emissions – while undoubtedly a distinct improvement on previous trends – will not be sufficient to meet reduction targets by 2030. While there have been significant improvements in the past year especially, Ireland remains well off hitting the sort of numbers that would meet our legally binding EU and national targets.
So what? says you. Another gloomy climate report; another bunch of ignorable warnings. Well, maybe. More about that later. But politicians – especially those with aspirations to govern, and no, that is not all of them – need to think about these issues not just as future climate problems but as current budgetary problems. The climate council has calculated that Ireland could face fines of more than €8 billion if the present trajectory is maintained. That would be fiscally disastrous for the next government, which would be faced with spending money on paying the fines rather than improving services, building infrastructure or reducing taxes.
The wisdom of spending billions on cutting carbon emissions before we are fined billions for not doing it is one that it doesn’t take the most sophisticated understanding of government to comprehend.
The second thing in the climate area that requires action is long-term preparation for the effects of climate change that are now inevitable. This requires investment in flood defences, water management and capacity to deal with the extreme weather events that are now, experts say, likely to occur with greater frequency.
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An open letter released last weekend by 44 experts from 15 countries warned about the danger of disruption to the system of ocean currents in the Atlantic that, among other things, moderates Ireland’s climate through the Gulf Stream. Measurements suggest the currents are slowing, a process driven by the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, and scientists fear that it may be in the process of shutting down completely. If that happened, it would have dramatic consequences for Ireland, turning our climate – counter-intuitively – much, much colder. There is nothing that Ireland can do on its own to stop this. But we can prepare for it.
Like so many of the decisions that face governments, the best time to take it was 20 years ago. But it would be unforgivable not to do it now. If this isn’t an election issue, I don’t know what is.
2. Immigration
People get nervous about this being debated for all sorts of good reasons. But we can’t stick our heads in the sand; it must be part of the election debate.
Immigration is roiling politics all over Europe, fuelling the rise of far-right parties like the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany and the Freedom Party in Austria. At last week’s summit, EU leaders spent much of the time discussing the issue, with talk of stronger border controls, faster deportation of failed asylum seekers and “hybrid warfare” by hostile countries who are pushing migrants across borders to destabilise EU member states.
EU leaders are being driven to harden their stance on migration by their own voters – they are either (like Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni) elected on promises to reduce migration, or fearful that if they don’t reduce migration they’ll be replaced by someone who will. Voters across Europe have deep misgivings about the levels of migration into their countries. There is simply no getting away from that.
The debate about migration here often tends to be refracted through the prism of the problems of accommodating people who come here seeking asylum or international protection. But this just a subset of overall migration – which includes people who come here legally on work permits, people who come from EU countries and don’t need work permits (just as Irish people don’t need them elsewhere in the EU); English-born people, many of Irish descent, who move here; and so on. We need an immigration and asylum policy that is humane, credible, enjoys public support and keeps Ireland open to the world in a sustainable way. Ireland needs migrants, but clearly it cannot – like anywhere else – manage unlimited numbers of arrivals. Poll after poll confirms immigration as a public concern. It would be folly to ignore that.
3. Ireland’s economic model
The amazing performance of the Irish economy over the past decade should not blind us to its vulnerabilities. Politicians and public alike take it for granted, with the extended run of bumper corporation tax revenues to recent years allowing the Government to embark on a three-year spending splurge in advance of the election. There is a clear and present danger that the election campaign descends into a massive auction, predicated on the idea that money will be no object. That would be extraordinarily dangerous.
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In fairness to the Coalition, it has put away sizeable chunks of the surpluses into long-term savings and investment funds, with another €4 billion transferred this week. Less attention has been paid to ensuring that the engines of the Irish economy are kept ticking over. What’s necessary to do that? Multinationals are crying out for investment in infrastructure. The universities that supply the educated workforce are in financial crisis. The costs of doing business have never been higher. Make your own long list.
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There is no doubt that Ireland has been lucky. But as golfer Gary Player said, the more I practise, the luckier I get. Nothing is more important for our society than maintaining the prosperity which provides the resources for governments to redistribute to make that society better. It should be the first priority in this and every election.
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